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应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (10): 3369-3377.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201710.016

• 目录 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于景观格局的太湖流域生态风险评估

谢小平,陈芝聪*,王芳,白毛伟,徐文阳   

  1. 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院/南四湖湿地生态与环境保护山东省高校重点实验室, 山东日照 276826
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-26 修回日期:2017-06-20 出版日期:2017-10-18 发布日期:2017-10-18
  • 作者简介:谢小平,男,1966年生,教授.主要从事流域生态及河流动力地貌研究.E-mail:xp.xie@263.net
  • 基金资助:

    本文由国家自然科学基金项目(41072164)和曲阜师范大学南四湖湿地生态环境保护山东省重点实验室资助 The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41072164) and the Shandong Key Laboratory of Nansi Lake Wetland Ecology and Environmental Protection in Qufu Normal University.2016-12-26 Received, 2017-06-20 Accepted.*

Ecological risk assessment of Taihu Lake basin based on landscape pattern

XIE Xiao-ping, CHEN Zhi-cong*, WANG Fang, BAI Mao-wei, XU Wen-yang   

  1. College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University/Shandong Key Laboratory of Nansi Lake Wetland Ecological and Environmental Protection, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China
  • Received:2016-12-26 Revised:2017-06-20 Online:2017-10-18 Published:2017-10-18
  • Supported by:

    The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41072164) and the Shandong Key Laboratory of Nansi Lake Wetland Ecology and Environmental Protection in Qufu Normal University.

摘要: 以太湖流域为例,采用2000、2005、2010、2015年4期景观类型数据,结合Markov和CLUE-S模型对2030年不同情景下景观类型进行模拟,构建景观生态风险指数,运用空间统计、重心迁移等方法,对太湖流域生态风险进行研究,揭示其景观生态风险时空演化特征及其规律.结果表明: 2000—2015年,太湖流域以中生态风险和较低生态风险为主,高生态风险区主要分布在太湖湖区,低生态风险由太湖西南部和南部向太湖北部发达地区转移.景观生态风险与自然因素呈负相关,且相关性减弱,与社会经济因素相关性越来越强,景观生态风险受人类干扰越来越显著.社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响,在不同城市化发展阶段的区域表现出显著差异:欠发达地区随着经济开发,景观日益破碎化,生态风险相应增加;发达地区则随着经济的进一步发展,城市化扩展使景观集聚成片,破碎度和分离度指数降低,生态建设得到恢复,景观生态风险随着经济发展开始降低.CLUE-S模型模拟预测表明,未来太湖流域景观生态风险将总体降低,主要以低生态风险和较低生态风险为主.太湖湖区不论在历史和未来都是高生态风险区,需要人们对太湖区域加强管理保护.

Abstract: Taihu Lake basin was selected as the study site. Based on the landscape data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the Markov and CLUE-S models were used to simulate the landscape types with different scenarios in 2030, and landscape ecological risk index was constructed. The shift of gravity center and spatial statistics were used to reveal landscape ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin with temporal and spatial characteristics. The results showed that the ecological risk mainly was at medium and low levels in Taihu Lake basin, and the higher ecological risk areas were mainly distributed at the Taihu Lake area during 2000 to 2015, and the low ecological risk was transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed areas in the northern part of Taihu Lake area. Spatial analysis showed that landscape ecological risk had negative correlation with natural factors, which was weakened gradually, while the correlation with socioeconomic factors trended to become stronger, with human disturbance affecting the landscape ecological risk significantly. The impact of socioeconomic factors on landscape ecological risks differed in different urbanization stages. In the developing area, with the economic development, the landscape was increasingly fragmented and the ecological risk was correspondingly increased. While in the developed area, with the further development of the economy, the aggregation index was increased, and fragmentation and separation indexes were decreased, ecological construction was restored, and the landscape ecological risk began to decline. CLUE-S model simulation showed that the ecological risk of Taihu Lake basin would be reduced in future, mainly on the low and relatively low levels. Taihu Lake area, both in history and the future, is a high ecological risk zone, and its management and protection should be strengthened.