陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201802.006

应用生态学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 412-420.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201802.006

陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应

霍晓英¹, 彭守璋^2,3, 任婧宇¹, 曹扬^2,3, 陈云明^2,3*

¹西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌 712100;
²西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌 712100;
³中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2017-07-10 出版日期:2018-02-18 发布日期:2018-02-18
通讯作者: E-mail: ymchen@ms.iswc.ac.cn
作者简介:霍晓英, 女, 1992年生, 硕士研究生. 主要从事流域生态学研究. E-mail: 853460387@qq.com
基金资助:
本文由中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2452017183)、国家自然科学基金项目(41601058)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项) (GYHY201506001-3)和中国科学院西部之光项目(XAB2015B07)资助

Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

HUO Xiao-ying¹, PENG Shou-zhang^2,3, REN Jing-yu¹, CAO Yang^2,3, CHEN Yun-ming^2,3*

¹Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
²Stake Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
³Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2017-07-10 Online:2018-02-18 Published:2018-02-18
Contact: E-mail: ymchen@ms.iswc.ac.cn
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2452017183), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601058), the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major Project) (GYHY201506001-3), and the ‘Light of West China’ Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XAB2015B07).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本研究利用LPJ-GUESS模型,分析了陕西省油松林在未来时期(2015—2100年)不同气候情景下净初级生产力(NPP)的变化趋势.结果表明: 在未来时期,研究区温度在RCP_2.6、RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5情景下将分别以0.12、0.23和0.54 ℃·10 a^-1的速率显著升高;降水在RCP_2.6和RCP_8.5情景下无显著变化,在RCP_4.5情景下将以14.36 mm·10 a^-1的速率显著增加.与历史时期(1961—1990年)相比,研究区油松林的NPP在未来时期将升高1.6%~29.6%;在RCP_8.5情景下21世纪末期(2071—2100年)油松林NPP将会升高45.4%;不同情景下油松林NPP表现为RCP_8.5＞RCP_4.5＞RCP_2.6.在未来时期,陕北地区油松林NPP在RCP_2.6和RCP_4.5情景下将分别以41.00和21.00 g C·m^-2·10 a^-1的速率下降,该区油松林有变为碳源的可能.

关键词: 气候变化, LPJ-GUESS模型, 油松, 净初级生产力

Abstract: This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a^-1 under RCP_2.6, RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP_4.5, under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a^-1. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP_8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP_8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP_4.5 and RCP_2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m^-2·10 a^-1 under the RCP_2.6 and RCP_4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

Key words: Pinus tabuliformis, LPJ-GUESS model, climate change., net primary productivity

霍晓英, 彭守璋, 任婧宇, 曹扬, 陈云明. 陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应[J]. 应用生态学报, 2018, 29(2): 412-420.

HUO Xiao-ying, PENG Shou-zhang, REN Jing-yu, CAO Yang, CHEN Yun-ming. Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018, 29(2): 412-420.

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陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应

Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

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