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应用生态学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 1079-1088.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.014

• 水文变异与非一致性专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

枯水期非一致性最低通航水位的综合历时曲线设计法

赵江艳1, 谢平1,2*, 桑燕芳3, 徐强强4, 吴子怡1   

  1. 1武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;
    2国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 武汉 430072;
    3中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    4汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司水库调度中心, 武汉 430048;
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-27 出版日期:2018-04-18 发布日期:2018-04-18
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: pxie@whu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:赵江艳,女,1994年生,硕士研究生.主要从事变化环境下的水文水资源研究.E-mail: zhaojiangyan@whu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    本文由国家自然科学基金项目(51579181,91547205,91647110)和湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015]13-21)资助

Synthetic duration curve method for the design of the lowest navigable water level with inconsistent characters in dry seasons

ZHAO Jiang-yan1, XIE Ping1,2*, SANG Yan-fang3, XU Qiang-qiang4, WU Zi-yi1   

  1. 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    2Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Maritime Rights, Wuhan 430072, China;
    3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    4Reservoir Dispatching Center, Hanjiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower (Group) Limited Liability Company, Wuhan 430048, China;
  • Received:2017-08-27 Online:2018-04-18 Published:2018-04-18
  • Contact: * E-mail: pxie@whu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:

    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51579181,91547205,91647110) and the Water Engineering and Science Project of Hunan Province (Xiangshuikeji [2015]13-21).

摘要: 全球气候变化和频繁人类活动导致水文序列的二阶矩变异现象日益凸显,样本的“一致性”内涵发生了变化,只考虑均值一阶矩变异的非一致性水文序列分析方法不再适用于所有的非一致性问题,基于样本一致性的传统最低通航水位综合历时曲线设计方法给枯水期低水位下的船舶通航带来了更大的安全隐患,使得最低通航水位更加不能满足航运设计需求.本文运用水文变异诊断系统分别检验水文序列的均值和方差二阶矩变异,在此基础上,结合时间序列的分解合成原理,提出枯水期非一致性最低通航水位综合历时曲线设计法.并以澜沧江流域的允景洪站为计算实例,比较分析现状与过去远期、过去近期不同时期的设计水位值,以及考虑二阶矩变异、仅考虑均值变异、未考虑变异3种不同情况下的设计水位值.结果表明: 方差变异成分改变了允景洪站设计水位值的变化趋势,并且与仅考虑均值变异的设计水位值的差值低至-1.11 m,与未考虑变异的设计水位值的差值低至-1.01 m,从而揭示了方差变异对设计水位的影响以及二阶矩变异分析在航道规划设计中的重要意义.

Abstract: Under the influence of both global climate change and frequent human activities, the variability of second-moment in hydrological time series become obvious, indicating changes in the consistency of hydrological data samples. Therefore, the traditional hydrological series analysis methods, which only consider the variability of mean values, are not suitable for handling all hydrological non-consistency problems. Traditional synthetic duration curve methods for the design of the lowest navigable water level, based on the consistency of samples, would cause more risks to navigation, especially under low water level in dry seasons. Here, we detected both mean variation and variance variation using the hydrological variation diagnosis system. Furthermore, combing the principle of decomposition and composition of time series, we proposed the synthetic duration curve method for designing the lowest navigable water level with inconsistent characters in dry seasons. With the Yunjinghong Station in the Lancang River Basin as an example, we analyzed its designed water levels in the present, the distant past and the recent past, as well as the differences among three situations (i.e., considering second moment variation, only considering mean variation, not considering any variation). Results showed that variability of the second moment changed the trend of designed water levels alteration in the Yunjinghong Station. When considering the first two moments or just considering the mean variation, the difference ofdesigned water levels was as bigger as -1.11 m. When considering the first two moments or not, the difference of designed water levels was as bigger as -1.01 m. Our results indicated the strong effects of variance variation on the designed water levels, and highlighted the importance of the second moment variation analysis for the channel planning and design.