气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202107.030

应用生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 2514-2524.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202107.030

气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

张伟萍¹, 胡云云², 李智华², 冯雪萍¹, 李登武^1*

¹西北农林科技大学林学院, 陕西杨凌 712100;
²国家林业和草原局西北调查规划设计院, 旱区生态水文与灾害防治国家林业和草原局重点实验室, 西安 710048

收稿日期:2021-01-15 修回日期:2021-04-19 出版日期:2021-07-15 发布日期:2022-01-15
通讯作者: *dengwuli@163.com
作者简介:张伟萍,女,1992年生,硕士研究生。主要从事森林可持续经营理论与评价研究。E-mail:1210131226@qq.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局西北调查规划设计院计划项目(20181207000007)

Predicting suitable distribution areas of Juniperus przewalskii in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios

ZHANG Wei-ping¹, HU Yun-yun², LI Zhi-hua², FENG Xue-ping¹, LI Deng-wu^1*

¹College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
²Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Northwest Surveying, Planning and Designing Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Xi'an 710048, China

Received:2021-01-15 Revised:2021-04-19 Online:2021-07-15 Published:2022-01-15
Contact: *dengwuli@163.com
Supported by:
Projet of Northwest Surveying,Planning and Designing Institute of National Forestry and Grasland Administration (20181207000007).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。

关键词: 祁连圆柏, 气候变化, Maxent模型, 稳定分布区

Abstract: Juniperus przewalskii is important for water and soil conservation. It is one of the native tree species suitable for afforestation and greening in high-cold and arid areas of Qinghai Province. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of J. przewalskii in Qinghai Province under the climate change scenario will provide theoretical guidance for its management, introduction, and cultivation. In this study, the current potential distribution of J. przewalskii was simulated firstly based on 88 effective distributional records from field investigation and data collection via Maxent model and ArcGIS spatial analysis. We analyzed dominant factors affecting the potential distribution of J. przewa-lskii by Jackknife test and correlation coefficient. The distribution of J. przewalskii under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) with the climate model data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) were predicted for 2061-2080. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Maxent model was greater than 0.92, suggesting a good predictive performance. Under current climatic condition, the suitable distribution area of J. przewalskii was mainly located in the eastern part of Qinghai Province, with the suitable area accounted for 11.2% of the total. The dominant factors affecting the distribution of J. przewalskii were altitude, annual precipitation, the minimum temperature of coldest month, and slope, with a cumulative contribution rate of 85.9%. The suitable areas of J. przewalskii altered under the three future climate scenarios. The suitable areas would shrink under the SSP245 scenario and expand under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The sui-table area of J. przewalskii would have the most obvious expansion under the SSP126 climate situation, with the expanding areas being mainly located in Zeku County, the north-central part of Henan Mongolian Autonomous County, and the southeast of Qilian County. Under three climatic scenarios, the suitable area of J. przewalskii would gradually migrate to high altitudes, but without clear altitudinal and longitudinal shifts.

Key words: Juniperus przewalskii, climate change, Maxent model, stable distribution area

张伟萍, 胡云云, 李智华, 冯雪萍, 李登武. 气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(7): 2514-2524.

ZHANG Wei-ping, HU Yun-yun, LI Zhi-hua, FENG Xue-ping, LI Deng-wu. Predicting suitable distribution areas of Juniperus przewalskii in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2021, 32(7): 2514-2524.

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气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

Predicting suitable distribution areas of Juniperus przewalskii in Qinghai Province under climate change scenarios

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