气候变化对中国马可波罗盘羊适宜生境的潜在影响

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202109.020

应用生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (9): 3127-3135.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202109.020

气候变化对中国马可波罗盘羊适宜生境的潜在影响

汪沐阳^1,2,3, 张楚婕⁴, 宓春荣⁵, 韩雷^1,2,3,6, 李美玲^{1,, 2}, 徐文轩^1,2,3, 杨维康^1,2,3*

¹中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
²中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所标本馆, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
³中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所木垒野生动物生态监测实验站, 新疆木垒 831900;
⁴新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站, 乌鲁木齐 830049;
⁵中国科学院动物研究所, 北京 100101;
⁶中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2020-11-29 接受日期:2021-06-30 出版日期:2021-09-15 发布日期:2022-03-15
通讯作者: * E-mail: yangwk@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:汪沐阳, 男, 1982年生, 副研究员。主要从事动物行为学与保护生物学研究。E-mail: wangmuyang@ms.xjb.ac.cn
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0501)资助

Potential impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Marco Polo sheep in China

WANG Mu-yang^1,2,3, ZHANG Chu-jie⁴, MI Chun-rong⁵, HAN Lei^1,2,3,6, LI Mei-ling^1,2, XU Wen-xuan^1,2,3, YANG Wei-kang^1,2,3*

¹State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
²Specimen Museum of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
³Mori Wildlife Monitoring and Experimentation Station, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mori 831900, Xinjiang, China;
⁴General Grassland Station of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830049, China;
⁵Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
⁶University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-11-29 Accepted:2021-06-30 Online:2021-09-15 Published:2022-03-15
Contact: * E-mail: yangwk@ms.xjb.ac.cn
Supported by:
Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0501).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化可能造成生物多样性下降和物种灭绝。开展气候变化对濒危野生动物分布格局影响的研究,对识别野生动物优先保护区、制定相关保护策略具有重要价值。本研究基于2017—2018年在新疆塔什库尔干野生动物自然保护区野外调查获得的马可波罗盘羊(Ovis ammon polii)分布位点,采用最大熵模型预测了气候变化下其适宜生境分布格局动态。结果表明: 马可波罗盘羊当前的适宜生境主要分布于保护区西北部,温度是影响其适宜生境分布的关键因子。在中、高排放浓度(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下,未来2050s和2070s两个时期马可波罗盘羊的适宜生境面积主要呈下降趋势,适宜生境丧失率高达40.5%;丧失的适宜生境主要位于低海拔区域,高海拔区域的适宜生境面积相应增加;由低海拔向高海拔转移的适宜生境面积随温室气体排放浓度升高而增加。从质心转移结果来看,其适宜生境主要向西(即马可波罗盘羊主要分布国塔吉克斯坦)迁移。

关键词: Maxent模型, 空间格局, 生境质量, 马可波罗盘羊, 迁移趋势, 帕米尔高原

Abstract: Climate change may lead to biodiversity loss and species extinction. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution pattern of endangered species is of great value to the identification of priority reserves and the formulation of relevant conservation strategies. Based on the distribution data of Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) obtained from the field survey in Taxkorgan Nature Reserve (TNR) in Xinjiang during 2017-2018, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the distribution pattern of its suitable habitat under climate change. The results showed that the suitable habitat of Marco Polo sheep was mainly distributed in the northwest of the TNR, with temperature as the key factor affecting its suitable habitat distribution. Under the medium and high emission concentration (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable habitat area of Marco Polo sheep would decrease in the next two periods (2050s and 2070s), with the loss rate of suitable habitat being as high as 40.5%. The loss of suitable habitat was mainly located in the low-altitude area, while the area of suitable habitat increased correspondingly in the high-altitude area. The area of suitable habitat from low elevation to high elevation increased with the increases of greenhouse gas emission concentration. According to the results of centroid transfer, the suitable habitat was mainly moved to the west, namely Tajikistan, the main distribution country of Marco Polo sheep.

Key words: MaxEnt model, spatial pattern, habitat quality, Ovis polii, migration tend, Pamir Plateau

汪沐阳, 张楚婕, 宓春荣, 韩雷, 李美玲, 徐文轩, 杨维康. 气候变化对中国马可波罗盘羊适宜生境的潜在影响[J]. 应用生态学报, 2021, 32(9): 3127-3135.

WANG Mu-yang, ZHANG Chu-jie, MI Chun-rong, HAN Lei, LI Mei-ling, XU Wen-xuan, YANG Wei-kang. Potential impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Marco Polo sheep in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2021, 32(9): 3127-3135.

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气候变化对中国马可波罗盘羊适宜生境的潜在影响

Potential impacts of climate change on suitable habitats of Marco Polo sheep in China

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