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应用生态学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 2796-2804.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202210.006

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于树轮宽度数据重建的阴山东部过去399年降水变化

李明启1,2*, 邵雪梅1,2, 聂文政1,2   

  1. 1中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    2中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-04 修回日期:2022-06-08 出版日期:2022-10-15 发布日期:2023-04-15
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: limq@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李明启, 男, 1979年生, 副研究员, 硕士生导师。主要从事树轮气候学、气候变化研究。E-mail: limq@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603302)

Precipitation variation reconstructed based on tree-ring width data for the past 399 years in the eastern Yinshan Mountains, China

LI Ming-qi1,2*, SHAO Xue-mei1,2, NIE Wen-zheng1,2   

  1. 1Key Laboratory of Land Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Scien-ces, Beijing 100101, China;
    2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2022-04-04 Revised:2022-06-08 Online:2022-10-15 Published:2023-04-15

摘要: 基于阴山东部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区域树轮宽度年表,并计算器测时期(AD 1952—2007)月均温和月降水量与树轮宽度年表的相关系数。结果表明: 树轮宽度年表与上一年9月至当年6月降水量变化的相关性最高(r=0.73,n=56,P<0.01),基于此重建了阴山东部过去399年(AD 1619—2017)上一年9月至当年6月的降水量变化历史。该重建解释了器测时期上一年9月至当年6月降水量54.9%的方差,经“留一法”交叉验证和分段独立检验证明,重建方程稳定可靠。在年代际尺度上,过去399年存在4个湿润时期(AD 1619—1663、AD 1705—1711、AD 1945—1963和AD 1979—2017)和4个干旱时期(AD 1734—1767、AD 1786—1814、AD 1839—1867和AD 1888—1942)。其中,AD 1979—2017是最湿润的时期,而AD 1888—1942是干旱持续最长的时段,包含最干旱时期1920s晚期。功率谱分析显示,过去399年该区降水具有2~7年和125年准周期变化。通过与邻近区域重建对比及空间相关分析表明,本降水重建序列可以较好地代表研究区域的降水变化。

关键词: 树轮, 降水重建, 阴山东部, 农牧交错带

Abstract: Based on the tree-ring increment cores of Pinus tabuliformis collected from the eastern Yinshan Mountains, the tree-ring width chronology was developed. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the chronology and monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation during the instrumental period of AD 1952-2007. The results showed that the highest correlation was found between the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year and the chronology (r=0.73, n=56, P<0.01). Based on the correlation, the September of previous year to June of current year total precipitation variation was reconstructed in the eastern Yin-shan Mountains during the past 399 years (AD 1619-2017). The reconstruction explained 54.9% of the variation in the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year for the calibration period (AD 1952-2007). Both the ‘leave-one-out' cross validation and split-period validation showed that the model was relatively robust, with sufficient skills of estimation and high reliability. At the decadal scale, there were four wet periods (AD 1619-1663, AD 1705-1711, AD 1945-1963, and AD 1979-2017)) and four dry periods (AD 1734-1767, AD 1786-1814, AD 1839-1867, and AD 1888-1942) in the past 399 years. Among those periods, the AD 1979-2017 was the wettest period, and AD 1888-1942 was the longest dry duration with the driest period at the late 1920s. Results of power spectral analysis revealed cyclic fluctuations of precipitation series on 2-7 years and 125 years. In addition, the comparison with other reconstructions and spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed precipitation series well represented regional scale precipitation variation.

Key words: tree-ring, precipitation reconstruction, eastern Yinshan Mountains, farming-pastoral zone