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北方冬小麦产量灾损风险类型的地理分布

薛昌颖1,2;霍治国1;李世奎1;庄立伟1;王素艳1,2;侯婷婷1,2;叶彩玲1,2   

  1. 1中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;2中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100094

  • 收稿日期:2004-05-14 修回日期:2004-11-26 出版日期:2005-04-18

Geographic distribution of winter wheat yield loss risk and its classification in North China

XUE Changying1,2,HUO Zhiguo1,LI Shikui1,ZHUANG Liwei1,WANG Suyan1,2, HOU Tingting1,2,YE Cailing1,2   

  1. 1Chinese Academy of Meteorology Science,Beijing 100081,China;2College of Resources and Environmental Science,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China

  • Received:2004-05-14 Revised:2004-11-26 Online:2005-04-18

摘要: 根据风险分析原理,利用北方各县市冬小麦近50年的实际单产资料和气象资料,进行冬小麦产量灾损风险评估和风险类型划分.以历年平均减产率、灾年减产率变异系数、不同减产率及其发生的概率和抗灾指数作为产量灾损风险评估指标.结果表明,产量灾损风险量化指标在北方冬麦区的分布具有明显的区域分异性和一定的连片性.在各风险评估指标的基础上构建了北方冬小麦产量灾损综合风险指数模式,提出了北方冬小麦产量灾损综合风险类型分类指标.根据分类指标将北方冬麦区划分为高、中、低3个风险类型,并进行了分类评述.分类结果表明,高风险类型主要分布在水土条件较差的陕、晋黄土高原地区和华北平原部分地区;中风险类型分布在华北平原东北部和河南南部以及太行山区;低风险类型主要分布在有灌溉条件和农业生产水平较好的华北平原的大部分地区和关中地区.

关键词: 长喙田菁, 多花黑麦草, 压青, 铅锌尾矿, 复垦

Abstract: Based on the theory of risk analysis and the nearest 50 years practical unit yield and meteorological data of North China winter wheat region,this paper discussed the assessment of winter wheat yield loss risk and its classification. The mean yield reduction rate of past years,variation coefficient of yield reduction rate in disaster years,different yield reduction rate and its occurrence probability,and disasters-resistance index were selected as the risk assessment indices,and the assessment showed that the distribution of these indices in the region had evident regional differentiation and certain continuity.The model of integrated risk index of North China winter wheat yield loss was established on the basis of the assessment,and the classification index of the risk was put forward.According to the classification result,North China winter wheat region was divided into three risk types,i.e.,high risk type mainly including the Loess Plateau areas of Shanxi and Shaanxi Provinces and the parts of North China Plain,medium risk type including the northeastern part of North China Plain,south Henan Province and Taihang Moutain region,and low risk type including most parts of North China Plain and the central Shanxi plain.

Key words: Sesbania rostrata, Lolium multiflorum, Burying, Pb/Zn tailings, Restoration