湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究进展

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从系统分析在湖泊生态系统动力学研究中的作用出发,对湖泊生态系统的动力学建模过程、方法和软件等进行了总结.在此基础上,综述了国内外湖泊生态系统动力学模型的发展.从1960年代至今,湖泊生态系统动力学模型从简单的零维模型发展到复杂的水质水动力学生态综合模型和生态结构动力学模型,如LakeWeb模型.中国的湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究始于20世纪80年代,主要集中在滇池、太湖、东湖和巢湖等富营养化严重的湖泊以及其他水体.目前,已经开发一些软件用于湖泊生态系统动力学模拟,主要有CEQUALICM、WASP、AQUATOX、PAMOLARE、CAEDYM等,以及用来模拟湖泊能流的软件ECOPATH.湖泊生态系统动力学模型还在监测、数据共享和模型结构、参数选取和不确定性分析等方面存在不足,需在今后的研究中加以改进.

关键词: 湖泊, 生态系统动力学, 模型

Abstract: Starting with the role of system analysis in lake ecosystem research,this paper summarized the tentative procedures and softwares for studying the dynamics of lake ecosystem.There are several main stages in modeling the dynamics of lake ecosystem,namely,problems identification,mathematical formulation,computation,validation,sensitive analysis,calibration,and verification.In the modeling,selecting temporal and spatial scales is essential but complex.Since 1960s,a rapid progress has been made in modeling the dynamics of lake ecosystem,being developed from simple zero-dimension models to complex ecological-aquatic-hydrodynamic ones,among which,exergy was applied popularly as an objective function in modeling.In this paper,LakeWeb and LEEDS (Lake Eutrophication,Effect,Dose,and Sensitivity model) were analyzed as examples.In China,the development of lake ecosystem dynamic models could be traced back to1980s,and most of them were focused on Lake Dianch,Lake Taihu,Lake Chaohu and Lake Donghu.Some softwares such as CE-QUAL-ICM,WASP,AQUATOX,PAMOLARE and CAEDYM were developed to simulate lake ecosystem dynamics,among which,CE-QUAL-ICM is more suitable for long and narrow water bodies.WASP consists of three parts,i.e.,DYNHYD,EUTRO,and TOXI.AQUATOX is an ecological risk model,and the parameters are mainly calibrated in U.S.A,which has limited its further application in China.The software ECOPATH for simulating the energy flows in lakes was also described in this paper.There are still many shortages in the lake ecosystem dynamic models,e.g.,the lack of sufficient monitoring data for validation,insufficient consideration of uncertainties and the role of bacteria,and inconsistent relationship with watershed changes.The uncertainties are mainly from the intrinsic uncertainties in aquatic ecosystem,in modeling,in parameters selection,and also in forecast and application.Setting up long-term monitoring and data sharing mechanism,using interpolation to make data more densely,introducing objective functions,dealing with uncertainties,and constructing watershed-lake ecosystem dynamic model could be the available ways for overcoming the shortages.

Key words: Lake, Ecosystem dynamics, Modeling

中图分类号:

P342

刘永, 郭怀成, 范英英, 王丽婧. 湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究进展[J]. 应用生态学报, 2005, 16(6): 1169-1175.

LIU Yong, GUO Huaicheng, FAN Yingying, WANG Lijing . Research advance on lake ecosystem dynamic models[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2005, 16(6): 1169-1175.

参考文献

[1] Arnold GW, Wit CT. 1976. Critical Evaluation of Systems Analysis in Ecosystems Research and Management. Wageningen:Pudoc.
[2] Cerco CF, Cole F. 1993. Three dimensional eutrophication model of Chesapeake bay. J Environ Eng, 19(6): 1006～ 1025
[3] Chen CS, Ji RB, Schwab DJ. 2002. A model study of the coupled biological and physical dynamics in Lake Michigan. Ecol Mod, 152(2～3) :145～ 168
[4] Chen C-S(陈长胜). 2003. Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Modelling. Beijing: Higher Education Press. 289～299 (in Chinese)
[5] Chen CW, Orlob GT. 1975. Ecologic simulation for aquatic environments. In: Patten BC, ed. System Analysis and Simulation in Ecology. Vol. Ⅲ). New York: Academic Press. 476～ 482
[6] Chen K-Q (陈凯麟), Li P-H(李平衡), Mi X-B (密小斌). 1999.The numerical simulation on impact of thermal discharge on eutrophication in lakes and reservoirs. Acta Water Res (水利学报),(1) :22～26(in Chinese)
[7] Ding S-Y (丁圣彦). 2004. Ecology. Beijing: Science Press. 168 ～170(in Chinese)
[8] Han F(韩菲),Chen Y-C(陈永灿),Liu Z-W(刘昭伟).2003.Advance in the eutrophication models for lakes and reservoirs. AdvWater Sci(水科学进展),11(6):785～791(in Chinese)
[9] Hakanson L, Carlsson L. 1998. Fish farming in lakes and acceptable total phosphorus loads:Calibrations, simulations and predictions using the LEEDS model in Lake Southern Bullaren, Sweden. Aqua Ecosyst Health Man, (1):9～22
[10] Hakanson L. 1999. Water Pollution-Methods and Criteria to Rank,Model and Remediate Chemical Threats to Aquatic Ecosystems.Leiden: Backhuys.
[11] Hakanson L, Viktor VB. 2002. The Lake Foodweb: Modelling Predation and Abiotic/Biotic Interactions. Leiden: Backhuys Publishers.
[12] Hakanson L, Boulion V. 2002. New models to predict the cover and production of macrophytes in lakes. Ecol Model, 151 (3):213 ～243
[13] Hakanson L, Viktor VB. 2003. A general dynamic model to predict biomass and production of phytoplankton in lakes. Ecol Mod, 165(2～3) :285～301
[14] Hakanson L, Viktor VB. 2003. Modelling production and biomasses of zoobenthos in lakes. Aqua Ecol, 37: 277～ 306
[15] Harmon R, Challenor P. 2001. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimation and assimilation into models. Ecol Mod, 101(1):41～59
[16] Hu WP, Jorgensen SE, Xu FL. 1998. A model for the effects of water hyacinths on water quality in an experiment of physico-biological engineering in Lake Taihu, China. Ecol Mod, 107(2 ～ 3): 171 ～188
[17] Hu W-P(胡维平),Pu P-M(濮培民),Qin B-Q(秦伯强).1998.A three-dimensional numerical simulation on the dynamcs in Taihu lake,China Ⅰ.The water level andthe current duringthe 9711 typhoon process.J Lake Sci(湖泊科学),10(4):17～25(in Chinese)
[18] Hu W-P(胡维平),Qin B-Q(秦伯强),Pu P-M(濮培民).1998.A three-dimensional numerical simulation on the dynamics in Taihu lake,China Ⅱ.The typical wind-driven current and its divergence.J Lake Sci(湖泊科学),10(4):26～33(in Chinese)
[19] Hu W-P(胡维平),Qin B-Q(秦伯强),Pu P-M(濮培民).2000.A three-dimensional numerical simulation on the dynamics in Taihu lake,China Ⅲ.Influence of the reclamation in Mashan District on wind-driven current.J Lake Sci(湖泊科学),12(4):335～342(in Chinese)
[20] Hu W-P(胡维平),Qin B-Q(秦伯强).2002.A three-dimensional numerical simulation on the dynamics in Taihu lake, China Ⅳ.Transportation and diffusion of conservative substance. J Lake Sci (湖泊科学), 14(4) :310～316(in Chinese)
[21] Jeffers John NR. 1978. An Introduction to Systems Analysis. London: Edward Arnold.
[22] Jin X-C(金相灿). 1995. China Lake Environment. Beijing: Ocean Press. (in Chinese)
[23] Jorgensen SE. 1976. An eutrophication model for a lake. Ecol Mod,2:147～ 165
[24] Jorgensen SE. 1994. Fundamentals of Ecological Modelling. 2nd edition. New York: Elsevier Science. 32～ 41
[25] Jorgensen SE. 1999. A Systems Approach to the Environmental Analysis of Pollution Minimization. New York: Lewis Publishers.20 ～ 53
[26] Jogensen SE. 2002. Integration of Ecosystem Theories: A Pattern.Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
[27] Jorgensen SE. 2003. Fundamentals of Ecological Modeling. 3rd edition. New York: Elsevier Science.
[28] Lan S-F(蓝盛芳). 2002. Emergy Analysis of Ecological-Economic Systems. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press. (in Chinese)
[29] Liu J-K(刘建康). 1999.Ecological Research on Lake Donghu Ⅱ.Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
[30] Liu J-K (刘建康). 1999. Advanced Aquatic Biology. Beijing: Science Press. 26～ 50 (in Chinese)
[31] Liu Y-S(刘玉生),Tang Z-W(唐宗武),Han M(韩梅).1991.The ecological dynamics models of Lake Dianchi and its application.Res Environ Sci(环境科学研究),4(6):1～7(in Chinese)
[32] Liu Y-B(刘元波),Chen W-M(陈伟民),Fan C-X(范成新).1998.Ecological simulation of blue algal bloom in Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake and analysis of its harness straggles.J Lake Sci(湖泊科学),10(4):53～59(in Chinese)
[33] Lu X-Y(卢小燕),Xu F-L(徐福留),Zhan W(詹巍).2003.Current situation and deveelpment trends in lake eutrophication models.Adv Water Sci(水科学进展),11(6):792～798(in Chinese)
[34] Luo L-C(罗潋葱),Qin B-Q(秦伯强).2003.Numerical simulation based on a three-dimensional shallow-water hydrodynamic model in Lake Taihu current circulations in Lake Taihu with preyailing wind-forcing.J Hyd-Dyn(水动力学研究与进展),18(6):686～691(in Chinese)
[35] Malmaeus JM, Hakanson L. 2004. Development of a Lake Eutrophication model. Ecol Mod, 171(1) :35～63
[36] Nyholm N. 1978. A simulation model for phytoplankton growth and nutrient cyclin g in eutrophic, shallow lakes. Ecol Mod, 4: 279 ～310
[37] Pang Y, Pu PM. 1995. A three-dimensional boundary-layer model in the Taihu Lake Area. Sci Atm Sin, 19(21) :243～251
[38] Pang Y(逄勇),Yao Q(姚琪),Pu P-M(濮培民).1998.AirWater Numerical Simulation of Taihu Lake.Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese)
[39] Pei T-F(裴铁璠),Yu X-M(于系民),Jin C-J(金昌杰),et al.2001.Ecological Dynamics.Beijing:Science Press.1～5(in Chinese)
[40] Quan W-M(全为民),Yan L-J(严力蛟),Yu Z-M(虞左明).2001.Advancein study of lake eutrophication models.Biol Sci(生物多样性),9(2):168～175(in Chinese)
[41] Rao Q(饶群),Rui X-F(芮孝芳).20001.The advances of study on the mechanism and mathematical modeling of eutrophication.Hydrology (水文), 21(2): 15 ～24(in Chinese)
[42] Romero JR, Hipsey MR, Antenucci JP. Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model: CAEDYM v2 v2.0 Science Manual.http://www. cwr. uwa. edu. au/ttfadmin/model/caedym/UserManual/CAEDYMv2p1 - UserGuide. pdf.
[43] Ruan J-R(阮景荣),Cai Q-H(蔡庆华),Liu J-K(刘建康).1988.Dynamical modelling of P and phytoplankton in Lake Donghu,Wuhan City.Acta Hydrobiol Sin(水生生物学报),12(4):289～307(in Chinese)
[44] Salomonsen J, Jensen JJ. 1996. Use of a lake model to examine exergy response to changes in phytoplankton growth parameters and species composition. Ecol Mod, 87(1 ～3) :41 ～49
[45] Scardi M. 2001. Advances in neural network modeling of phytoplankton primary production. Ecol Mod, 146(1): 33～ 45
[46] Scavia D, Park RA. 1976. Documentation of selected constructs and parameter values in the aquatic model CLEANER. Ecol Mod, 2:33～51
[47] Scheffer M. 1998. Ecology of Shallow Lakes. London: Chapman and Hall.
[48] Song Y-C(宋永昌),Wang Y(王云),Qi R-H(戚仁海).1991.Eutrophication of Lake Dianshan.Shanghai:ECNU Press.157～180(in Chinese)
[49] Sun P-Y(孙平跃),Lu J-J(陆健健).1997.Exergytheory:A new method for ecosystem research.Chin J Ecol(生态学杂志),16(5):32～37(in Chinese)
[50] Sun Y(孙颖),Chen Z-H(陈肇和),Fan X-N(范晓娜).2001.A review of river and reservoir water quality models and general software.WaterRes Prot(水资源保护),(2):7～12(in Chinese)
[51] Tong L(仝龄).1999.Ecopath model-A mass-balance modeling for ecosystem estimation.Mar Fish Res(海洋水产研究),20(2):103～107(in Chinese)
[52] Tong L(仝龄),Tang Q-S(唐启生),Daniel P.2000.A preliminary approach on mass balance ecopath model of the Bohai Sea.Chin J Appl Ecol(应用生态学报),11(3):435～440(in Chinese)
[53] Tu Q-Y(屠清瑛),Gu D-X(顾丁锡),Yin C-Q(尹澄清).1990.Study on the Eutrophication of Lake Chaohu. Hefei: USTC Press.101～ 117(in Chinese)
[54] Virtanen M, Koponen J, Dahlbo K. 1986. Three-dimensional water quality-transport model compared with field observations. EcolMod,31:185～199
[55] Xia J(夏军),Du M(窦明).2000.Study on eutrophaction synthetic water quality model and its application.Shanghai Environ Sci(上海环境科学),19(7):302～308(in Chinese)
[56] Xiao D-N(肖笃宁).1994.Characteristics and methods of macroscopic ecological research.Chin J Appl Ecol(应用生态学报),5(1):95～102(in Chinese)
[57] Xu C-G(徐崇刚),Hu Y-M(胡远满),Chang Y(常禹),et al.Sensitivity analysis in ecological modeling. Chin J Appl Ecol(应用生态学报),15(6):1056～1062(in Chinese)
[58] Xu FL,Jorgensen SE,Tao S.1999.Modelingthe effects of macrophyte restoration on water quality and ecosystem of Lake Chao.Ecol Mod,117:239～260
[59] Xu Q-J(许秋瑾),Qin B-Q(秦伯强),Chen W-M(陈伟民).2001.Ecological simulation of algae growth in Taihu Lake.J Lake Sci (湖泊科学),13(2):149～157(in Chinese)
[60] Zhang Y-Z(张永泽),Zheng B-H(郑丙辉),Hou Y-G(侯宇光).1996.Study of improvement to ecodynamic model for lake.J Chengdu Univ Technol Sci(成都科技大学学报),(2):1～7(in Chinese)
[61] Zhang Y-Z(张永泽),Liu Y-S(刘玉生),Zheng B-H(郑丙辉).1997.Application of exergy to the modelling of lake ecosystem.J Lake Sci(湖泊科学),9(1):75～81(in Chinese)
[62] Zhang YZ,Yu H.1999.Structural ecodynamic model forlakes and reservoirs.Acta Ecol Sin(生态学报),19(6):902～907(in Chinese)
[63] Zheng B-H(郑丙辉),Zhang Y-Z(张永泽),Liang Z-B(梁占彬).1994.Improvement of ecological dynamics models of Lake Dianchi.Res Environ Sci(环境科学研究),7(4):1～6(in Chinese)
[64] Zhu Y-C(朱永春),Cai Q-M(蔡启铭).1998.Studies on athreedimensional hydro-dynamic model for Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake Ⅰ.Model description and result interpretation.Oceanog Limnol (海洋与湖沼),29(1):79～85(in Chinese)
[65] Zhu Y-C(朱永春),Cai Q-M(蔡启铭).1998.Studies on a threedimensional hydro-dynamic modelfor Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake Ⅱ The diffusion of nutrient salt underthe action ofthree-dimensional currents.OceanogLimnol(海洋与湖沼),29(2):169～174(in Chinese)