关键词: 伊犁河三角洲, 景观格局, CA_Markov模型, 巴尔喀什湖, 稻茬麦根系, 根构型, 周向分布, 投影面分形分析

Abstract: Based on the remote sensing and hydrologic data and in combining with the characteristics of arid area, a landscape classification system for Ili River Delta was established. In the meantime, by the methods of quantitative analysis in landscape ecology and the simulation method with CA_Markov model, the landscape change pattern in the Delta from 1975 to 2007 and the scenarios simulation landscape pattern in 2020 were analyzed. Under the effects of anthropogenic activities and environmental factors, the landscape change pattern in 1975-2007 presented definite periodicity and instability. In 1990-2007, the landscape change accorded with the applied conditions of CA_Markov model; in 2020, the predicated landscape pattern showed severe patch fragmentation, the landscape connectivity tended to be weakened, and the spatiotemporal change patterns of the landscapes closely related to water, such as lake, marsh, and floodplain, were of great uncertainty. There was a significant differentiation between the predicated landscape patterns in 2020 based on the 1990-2000 and 2000-2007 probabilistic transfer matrixes. The variation degrees and expression forms of different landscapes also differed, due to the discrepancy and instability of natural conditions, as well as the different change ways and directions of landscape types in 1900-2000 and 2000-2007.

Key words: Ili River Delta, landscape pattern, CA_Markov model, Balkhash Lake, post-paddy wheat root, root architecture, circumferential distribution, projection surface fractal analysis.