关键词: 未来气候变化, 农业热量资源, 影响, 适应对策

Abstract: Based on the 2011-2050 A2 climate scenario derived from the regional climate model PRECIS and the daily data of 1961-1990 baseline climate condition, this paper analyzed the possible changes of the agricultural thermal resources in China from 2011 to 2050. Comparing with the baseline climate condition in 1961-1990, the average frost-free periods in most parts of China in 2011-2050 under A2 climate scenario would have an obvious extension, mainly manifested in the advance of last frost date and the postpone of first frost date. The days with the daily averagetemperature stably passing 0 ℃ would also prolong significantly, and extend from 1 day to 14 days in most parts of the country. Especially from 2041 to 2050, the days with the daily average temperature stably passing 0 ℃ in most regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, and western and southwestern regions of Gansu and Xinjiang could be extended by 49 days. The ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperatures in most parts of the country would have  increasing trends. In order to meet the future change trend of our agricultural thermal resources and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture in China, some countermeasures should be formulated, e.g, further adjusting agricultural cropping system, optimizing agricultural production distribution, developing biotechnology, and so on.

Key words: future climate change, agricultural thermal resource, impact, adaptation countermeasur