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应用生态学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (12): 3113-3119.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力影响的预测与分析

姜群鸥1,2,邓祥征1,3**,林英志1,崔永伟4   

  1. 1中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;2中国科学院研究生院,北京 100039;3中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101;4农业部规划设计研究院农业发展与投资研究所,北京 100125
  • 出版日期:2010-12-18 发布日期:2010-12-18

Impacts of cultivated land conversion on cultivated land productivity in China: Prediction and analysis.

JIANG Qun-ou1,2, DENG Xiang-zheng1,3, LIN Ying-zhi1, CUI Yong-wei4   

  1. 1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China|2Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China|3Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;4Institute of Agricultural Development and Investment, Chinese Academy ofAgricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China
  • Online:2010-12-18 Published:2010-12-18

摘要: 依据DLS模型模拟了未来情景下中国耕地面积及其空间分布特征,在此基础上,应用ESLP估算了栅格尺度上的耕地生产力水平,分析了不同农业生态区耕地生产力的空间分异特征.基于以上两个模型的估算结果,分析了2000—2020中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力的影响,提炼了影响耕地生产力变化的主要因素.结果表明: 在耕地生产力有较大增长空间的地域,提高单位面积耕地生产力比耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著;但对于耕地生产力增长空间较小的地域,耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著.要保障国家粮食安全,既要合理控制耕地转移,保证中国1.2×108 hm2耕地红线,又要增加投入、提高管理水平,增加单位面积的粮食产量.

关键词: 耕地用途转移, 耕地生产力, 未来情景分析, DLS模型, 修正风蚀方程模型, 防风固沙, 时空变化, 驱动力

Abstract: This paper simulated the spatial patterns of cultivated land in China under the future scenario by using the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model, and then estimated the cultivated land productivity at the grid pixel dimensions based on the Estimation System of Land Production (ESLP). In addition, the spatial patterns of cultivated land productivity in each of China agro-ecological zones were analyzed. On this basis, this paper predicted the impacts of cultivated land conversion on the cultivated land production in China in 2000-2020, and identified the major affecting factors on the cultivated land production. The research results indicated that the impact of improving the cultivated land productivity on the cultivated land production would be wunch more remarkable than that from the magnitude of cultivated land conversion in regions where there were high potential to imrprove the cultivated land productivity. However, in the regions with nearly no room to improve the productivity, cultivated land conversion would produce more apparent impacts on the total cultivated land production. In this sense, it was of significance for the national food security in China to adjust the cultivated land conversion to ensure the 0.12 billion hm2 of cultivated land, and to increase investment and improve management level to increase per unit grain yield.

Key words: cultivated land conversion, cultivated land productivity, future scenario analysis, DLS model, ESLP, revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model, sandfixing effect, spatiotemporal change, driving force.