欢迎访问《应用生态学报》官方网站,今天是 分享到:

应用生态学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (03): 819-826.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

影响福建省龙眼产量的多灾种综合风险评估

陈家金**,王加义,李丽纯,林晶,杨凯,马治国,徐宗焕   

  1. 福建省气象科学研究所, 福州 350001
  • 出版日期:2012-03-18 发布日期:2012-03-18

Integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters affecting Longyan yield in Fujian Province, East China.

CHEN Jia-jin, WANG Jia-yi, LI Li-chun, LIN Jing, YANG Kai, MA Zhi-guo, XU Zong-huan   

  1. Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou 350001, China
  • Online:2012-03-18 Published:2012-03-18

摘要: 通过分析影响福建省龙眼生长发育和产量的主要环境因素,从致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性和种植区防灾减灾能力三方面构建影响龙眼产量的多灾种综合风险评估指标体系,结合福建省龙眼种植区历年气象资料、龙眼种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,应用层次分析法和熵权系数法确定风险指标的综合权重,进而构建了多灾种综合风险评估模型,评估主要农业气象灾害对龙眼产量影响的风险.结果表明: 长乐以南沿海县市低海拔龙眼种植区(除东山县外)多灾种综合风险较轻;重度风险以上的区域主要分布在龙岩的漳平市,漳州的东山、平和、南靖、华安,泉州的永春、安溪,莆田和仙游的北部山区,福州的闽清、闽侯、罗源及市辖区的山区,宁德的福安、霞浦及市辖区的山区.其中,东山、漳平和其他海拔较高的山区有严重风险;其余种植区属中度风险.

关键词: 龙眼, 产量, 多灾种, 风险评估

Abstract: In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation of multiple disasters on the Longyan production in Fujian Province was constructed, based on the analysis of the major environmental  factors affecting the Longyan growth and yield, and from the viewpoints of potential hazard of disaster-causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-affected body, and disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Longyan growth regions in the Province. In addition, an integrated evaluation model of multiple disasters was established to evaluate the risks of the major agro-meteorological disasters affecting the Longyan yield, based on the yearly meteorological data, Longyan planting area and yield, and other socio-economic data in Longyan growth region in Fujian, and by using the integral weight of risk indices determined by AHP and entropy weight coefficient methods. In the Province, the Longyan growth regions with light integrated risk of multiple disasters were distributed in the coastal counties (except Dongshan County) with low elevation south of Changle, the regions with severe and more severe integrated risk were mainly in Zhangping of Longyan, Dongshan, Pinghe, Nanjin, and Hua’an of Zhangzhou, Yongchun and Anxi of Quanzhou, north mountainous areas of Putian and Xianyou, Minqing, Minhou, Luoyuan, and mountainous areas of Fuzhou, and Fuan, Xiapu, and mountainous areas of Ninde, among which, the regions with severe integrated risk were in Dongshan, Zhangping, and other mountainous areas with high altitudes, and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the Province.

Key words: Longyan, yield, multiple disasters, risk evaluation