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应用生态学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (6): 2031-2038.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201606.025

• 综合评述 • 上一篇    

生态学假说试验验证的原假说困境

李 际1,2*   

  1. 1中国科学院大学博士后流动站, 北京 100049;
    2 云南师范大学马克思主义学院, 昆明 650500
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-21 发布日期:2016-06-18
  • 通讯作者: liji@ucas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李 际,男,1976年出生,博士, 中国科学院大学在站博士后. 主要从事生态学哲学、原理与方法研究. E-mail: liji@ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本文由中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M571099)、教育部人文社科研究基金项目(14YJCZH072,13YJA720019)和云南师范大学马克思主义学院科研基金项目资助

Dilemma of null hypothesis in ecological hypothesis’s experiment test.

LI Ji1,2   

  1. 1Station of Post-doctorial Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    2School of Marxism, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2015-10-21 Published:2016-06-18

摘要: 试验方法是生态学假说的主要验证方法之一,但也存在由原假说引发的质疑.Quinn和Dunham(1983)通过对Platt(1964)的假说-演绎模型进行分析,主张生态学不可能存在可以严格被试验验证的原假说.Fisher的证伪主义与Neyman-Pearson(N-P)的非判决性使得统计学原假说不能被严格验证;而生态过程中存在的不同于经典物理学的原假说H0(α=1,β=0)与不同的备假说H1′(α′=1,β′=0)的情况,使得生态学原假说也很难得到严格的实验验证.通过降低P值、谨慎选择原假说、对非原假说采取非中心化和双侧验证可分别缓解上述的原假说困境.但统计学的原假说显著性验证(NHST)不应等同于生态学假说中有关因果关系的逻辑证明方法.因此,现有大量基于NHST的生态学假说的方法研究和试验验证的结果与结论都不是绝对的逻辑可靠的.

Abstract: Experimental test is one of the major test methods of ecological hypothesis, though there are many arguments due to null hypothesis. Quinn and Dunham (1983) analyzed the hypothesis deduction model from Platt (1964) and thus stated that there is no null hypothesis in ecology that can be strictly tested by experiments. Fisher’s falsificationism and Neyman-Pearson (N-P)’s non-decisivity inhibit statistical null hypothesis from being strictly tested. Moreover, since the null hypothesis H0(α=1, β=0) and alternative hypothesis H1′(α′=1, β′=0) in ecological progresses are diffe-rent from classic physics, the ecological null hypothesis can neither be strictly tested experimentally. These dilemmas of null hypothesis could be relieved via the reduction of P value, careful selection of null hypothesis, non-centralization of non-null hypothesis, and two-tailed test. However, the statistical null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) should not to be equivalent to the causality logistical test in ecological hypothesis. Hence, the findings and conclusions about methodological studies and experimental tests based on NHST are not always logically reliable.