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应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 1851-1859.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201706.009

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基于气象因子的白桦天然林单木直径生长模型

张海平, 李凤日, 董利虎*, 刘强   

  1. 东北林业大学林学院, 哈尔滨 150040
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2017-06-18
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail:donglihu2006@163.com
  • 作者简介:张海平,男,1991年生,硕士研究生.主要从事林木生长与收获模型的研究.E-mail:perfectzhp@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文由国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD22B02)和黑龙江省留学归国人员科学基金项目(LC2016007)资助

Individual tree diameter increment model for natural Betula platyphylla forests based on meteorological factors

ZHANG Hai-ping, LI Feng-ri, DONG Li-hu*, LIU Qiang   

  1. School of Fore-stry,Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • Received:2016-12-20 Published:2017-06-18
  • Contact: *E-mail:donglihu2006@163.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Support Project of China (2012BAD22B02) and the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, Heilongjiang Province, China (LC2016007)

摘要: 基于大、小兴安岭地区212块白桦天然林固定样地复测数据和区域内及周边共30个气象站点数据,构建了基于气象因子的单木生长模型.在此基础上,通过分析大、小兴安岭地区林分因子及气象因子的差异,采用哑变量方法构建了含区域效应的单木直径生长模型.结果表明: 生长季最低温度(Tg min)和生长季降雨量(Pg m)是影响两地区白桦胸径生长量的主要气象因素.Tg minPg m与胸径生长量均呈正相关关系,但Tg min对胸径生长量的影响程度存在明显的区域差异.引入Tg minPg m的单木生长模型比仅含林分因子的单木生长模型的调整后确定系数(Ra2)提高了11%(Ra2=0.56),说明气象因子可以很好地解释该地区白桦生长情况;采用哑变量法构建的含区域效应的胸径生长模型将Ra2提高了18%(Ra2=0.59),且有效解决了模型参数区域不相容的问题.模型检验结果表明,含区域效应的哑变量单木胸径生长模型对大、小兴安岭地区白桦胸径生长量的预估效果最好,平均偏差、平均绝对偏差、平均相对偏差和平均相对偏差绝对值分别为0.0086、0.4476、5.8%和20.0%.基于气象因子的哑变量单木胸径生长模型可以很好地描述大、小兴安岭地区白桦的胸径生长过程.

Abstract: Based on the 212 re-measured permanent plots for natural Betula platyphylla fore-sts in Daxing’an Mountains and Xiaoxing’an Mountains and 30 meteorological stations data, an individual tree growth model based on meteorological factors was constructed. The differences of stand and meteorological factors between Daxing’an Mountains and Xiaoxing’an Mountains were analyzed and the diameter increment model including the regional effects was developed by dummy variable approach. The results showed that the minimum temperature (Tg min) and mean precipitation (Pg m) in growing season were the main meteorological factors which affected the diameter increment in the two study areas. Tg min and Pg m were positively correlated with the diameter increment, but the influence strength of Tg min was obviously different between the two research areas. The adjusted coefficient of determination (Ra2) of the diameter increment model with meteorological factors was 0.56 and had an 11% increase compared to the one without meteorological factors. It was concluded that meteorological factors could well explain the diameter increment of B. platyphylla. Ra2 of the model with regional effects was 0.59, and increased by 18% compared to the one without regional effects, and effectively solved the incompatible problem of parameters between the two research areas. The validation results showed that the individual tree diameter growth model with regional effect had the best prediction accuracy in estimating the diameter increment of B. platyphylla. The mean error, mean absolute error, mean error percent and mean prediction error percent were 0.0086, 0.4476, 5.8% and 20.0%, respectively. Overall, dummy variable model of individual tree diameter increment based on meteorological factors could well describe the diameter increment process of natural B. platyphylla in Daxing’an Mountains and Xiaoxing’an Mountains.