四川省猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布预测及适生区域划分

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201912.013

应用生态学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 4222-4230.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201912.013

四川省猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布预测及适生区域划分

王茹琳^1,2,3, 郭翔⁴, 李庆³, 王明田^1,5,6*, 游超⁴

¹中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072;
²四川省农村经济综合信息中心, 成都 610072;
³四川农业大学农学院, 成都 611130;
⁴四川省农业气象中心, 成都 610072;
⁵四川省气象台, 成都 610072;
⁶南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室, 成都 610066

收稿日期:2019-03-18 出版日期:2019-12-15 发布日期:2019-12-15
通讯作者: * E-mail: wangmt0514@163.com
作者简介:王茹琳, 男, 1986年生, 博士研究生. 主要从事气候变化与病虫害的关系研究. E-mail: wrl_1986_1@163.com
基金资助:
本文由高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重点实验室2018-重点-05-11)和国家现代农业产业体系四川水果创新团队猕猴桃病虫害综合防治岗位资助

Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province, China

WANG Ru-lin^1,2,3, GUO Xiang⁴, LI Qing³, WANG Ming-tian^1,5,6*, YOU Chao⁴

¹Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorology Administration/Sichuan Pro-vince Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin, Chengdu 610072, China;
²Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, China;
³College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China;
⁴Sichuan Province Agro-meteorological Center, Chengdu 610072, China;
⁵Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;
⁶Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area, Chengdu 610066, China

Received:2019-03-18 Online:2019-12-15 Published:2019-12-15
Contact: * E-mail: wangmt0514@163.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Scientific and Technological Development Foundation of Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin (Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province-2018-Key-05-11) and the Modern Agricultural Industry Technology System of Sichuan Innovation Team

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探明猕猴桃溃疡病在四川的适生性,选用MaxEnt模型,基于分布信息和环境变量,对该病在四川潜在分布区进行预测,分析主要环境变量对其分布的影响,并利用受试者工作特征曲线对模拟准确度进行评价.结果表明: 10次重复模拟的曲线下面积平均值为0.914,预测结果准确.猕猴桃溃疡病在四川的高适生区主要位于成都市、德阳市、绵阳市、广元市、巴中市、达州市和雅安市,中适生区在四川21地市州均有分布.刀切法筛选出影响猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布的主要环境变量及其指标为:最冷月最低气温(-6.8～7.5 ℃)、最暖季度平均气温(15.6～32.3 ℃)、最干季度平均气温(-0.8～21 ℃)、年降水量(709～950.9 mm)和气温季节性变化标准差(4.7～9.6 ℃).本研究对制定猕猴桃溃疡病早期监测、预警及控制措施意义重大.

Abstract: To detect the suitability of kiwifruit bacterial canker in Sichuan, a MaxEnt model based on distribution information and environmental variables was used to predict its potential distribution area and to analyze the impact of major environmental variables. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation. The average area under curve of 10 replicates was 0.914, which indicated that the predictive results were reliable. The highly sui-table distribution areas of kiwifruit bacterial canker were Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, and Ya’an. All the 21 cities of Sichuan were classified as moderately suitable areas. The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of kiwifruit bacterial canker as determined by Jackknife method were minimum temperature of coldest month (-6.8-7.5 ℃), mean temperature of warmest Quarter (15.6-32.3 ℃), mean temperature of driest quarter (-0.8-21 ℃), annual precipitation (709-950.9 mm), and standard variation of temperature seasonality (4.7-9.6 ℃). Our results are impotant for early monitoring, early warning, and developing control measures for kiwifruit bacterial canker.

王茹琳, 郭翔, 李庆, 王明田, 游超. 四川省猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布预测及适生区域划分[J]. 应用生态学报, 2019, 30(12): 4222-4230.

WANG Ru-lin, GUO Xiang, LI Qing, WANG Ming-tian, YOU Chao. Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2019, 30(12): 4222-4230.

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四川省猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布预测及适生区域划分

Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province, China

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