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应用生态学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 3535-3543.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201910.017

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于长期能源替代规划模型的江苏省能源CO2排放达峰时间及峰值水平

王春春1,2,3, 王远1,2,3*, 朱晓东3   

  1. 1福建师范大学福建省亚热带资源与环境重点实验室, 福州 350007;
    2福建师范大学地理科学学院, 福州 350007;
    3南京大学环境学院, 污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室, 南京 210023
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-12 出版日期:2019-10-20 发布日期:2019-10-20
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail: y.wang@fjnu.edu.cn; ywang@nju.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:王春春, 男, 1994年生, 硕士. 主要从事城市化的能源环境效应、能源消费碳排放等方面的研究. E-mail: MG16250026@smail.nju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    福建省自然科学基金项目(2018J01736)资助

Peak volume and time of energy-related CO2 emissions in Jiangsu Province, China based on long-range energy alternatives planning system model

WANG Chun-chun1,2,3, WANG Yuan1,2,3*, ZHU Xiao-dong3   

  1. 1Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Subtropical Resources and Environment, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;
    2 School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;
    3State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2018-11-12 Online:2019-10-20 Published:2019-10-20
  • Contact: *E-mail: y.wang@fjnu.edu.cn; ywang@nju.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (2018J01736).

摘要: 为了应对全球气候变暖,中国政府提出到2030年CO2排放达到峰值(或峰值平台)的减排目标.为了探究中国能否实现该减排目标,本研究以江苏省为例,基于长期能源规划替代模型(LEAP),耦合对数平均迪氏分解模型,运用情景分析法科学设定快速、中速、慢速达峰3种发展情景,预测CO2排放达峰时间及峰值水平.结果表明: 2000—2015年间,经济规模效应是CO2排放总量增长的主要驱动因素,其贡献度高达147.4%;技术进步效应是最重要的缓解因素,贡献度为-60.4%,一次能源结构效应、产业结构效应、人均收入效应、人口规模效应的贡献度分别为-5.3%、9.7%、11.0%、0.6%.在快速、中速达峰情景下,江苏省分别在2025和2029年达到CO2排放峰值,峰值分别为7.01、7.95亿t,慢速达峰情景下未能实现2030年的CO2排放达峰目标.综合研究分析,江苏省有着较大的减排潜力,经过相应的努力能够实现CO2减排目标.为实现2030年的CO2减排目标可采取以下措施:主动适应经济新常态,稳定发展增速;积极发展第三产业,平衡经济结构;持续推进节能减排技术,降低能源消费强度;大力发展天然气及核电等清洁能源,优化一次能源消费结构.

Abstract: China has put forward CO2 emissions reduction target (committing to achieve CO2 emissions peak or plateau by 2030) to prevent global climate change. With Jiangsu Province as a case, we explored whether China could achieve the 2030 CO2 emissions reduction target. We predicted the peak volume and time of CO2 emission in three scenarios, i.e., quick scenario, medium scenario, slow scenario, respectively, based on the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach. The results showed that, during the period 2000 to 2015, the economic scale effect was the most important driver, whose contribution to the increase of total CO2 emissions was as high as 147.4%. The technology progress effect was the main mitigation factor for CO2 emissions, which caused CO2 emissions to decrease by 60.4%. In addition, the contributions of energy structure effect, industrial structure effect, per capita income effect and population scale effect to CO2 emissions were -5.3%, 9.7%, 11.0%, and 0.6% respectively. In quick and medium scenarios, the peak CO2 emissions of Jiangsu Province would be 701 million tons in 2025, and 795 million tons in 2029, respectively. In slow scenario, however, Jiangsu Province could not achieve the 2030 CO2 emissions reduction target. To achieve the 2030 target, Jiangsu Province needs to adopt some strategies, including actively developing the tertiary industry to balance the economic structure, continuously promoting energy saving and emissions reduction technologies to reduce energy consuming intensity, and vigorously deploying clean energy to optimize the energy consuming structure.