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应用生态学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 4186-4194.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201912.019

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广东省寒害极值变化及其对冬种生产的影响

王华1, 唐力生1*, 张柳红1, 李彩玲2   

  1. 1广东省气候中心, 广州 510080;
    2佛山市气象局, 广东佛山 528000
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-25 出版日期:2019-12-15 发布日期:2019-12-15
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: tangls@grmc.gov.cn
  • 作者简介:王 华,女,1981年生,硕士研究生.主要从事农业气象和气候变化对农业的影响研究.E-mail: wanghua@grmc.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本文由中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201837)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406027)资助

Change of extreme chilling and its impact on winter planting in Guangdong Province, China

WANG Hua1, TANG Li-sheng1*, ZHANG Liu-hong1, LI Cai-ling2   

  1. 1Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China;
    2Foshan Meteorological Bureau, Foshan 528000, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2019-04-25 Online:2019-12-15 Published:2019-12-15
  • Contact: * E-mail: tangls@grmc.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Climate Change Program of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF201837) and the Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) Special Research Fund (GYHY201406027)

摘要: 基于广东省86个气象观测站1961—2017年冬种生产季的逐日气温资料,采用数理统计方法分析冬种寒害极值的时空分布特征,并运用广义极值分布理论估算市县级的寒害重现期,旨在为当前冬种区域寒害风险评估、预警以及实时气象防灾减灾等提供技术支撑.结果表明: 冬种主产区积寒极值总体呈下降趋势,其中,湛江、梅州自20世纪80年代中期以来显著下降,茂名、韶关和广州自21世纪以来显著下降;极端最低气温总体呈先降后升的趋势,其中,韶关自20世纪80年代后期以来显著上升,但广州近5年开始出现下降趋势.冬种生产季极端积寒极值发生的站次数由多到少的顺序为70年代>21世纪>90年代>60年代>80年代,极端最低气温极值发生站次数由多到少的顺序为60年代>90年代>21世纪>70年代>80年代.2、5、10、20、50和100年一遇的寒害理论预测值呈明显的纬向分布特征,积寒表现为北多南少,极端最低气温表现为南高北低,与寒害实际发生过程中的积寒、极端最低气温分布趋势一致.典型个例表现为南部寒害重现期长、北部短.广东冬种主产区的湛江、茂名寒害重现期长,极端寒害发生的概率小但危害重,其冬种作物面积位居前列,生产上应引起重视.研究成果可为广东各级政府和有关部门指导冬种生产和制定应对气候变化对策提供科学参考.

Abstract: Based on daily temperature data of 86 weather stations during winter producing season from 1961 to 2017 in Guangdong Province, the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme chilling was analyzed. The return periods of extreme chilling at county level were calculated with the theory of generalized extreme value distribution to provide technical support for extreme chilling risk assessment and early warning together with real-time meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation in winter planting areas. Results showed that there was a general downward trend of the extreme values of chilling accumulation in main winter planting zones. Zhanjiang and Meizhou had declined significantly since the mid-1980s, while Maoming, Shaoguan and Guangzhou had declined significantly since the 21st century. The extreme minimum temperature followed a curve trending generally downward first and upward later on, with a significant rising in Shaoguan from later 1980s while a descending in Guangzhou in the last five years. The order of the number of extreme value stations of chilling accumulation was 1970s > the 21st century > 1990s > 1960s > 1980s. The order of the number of stations of extreme minimum temperature was 1960s > 1990s > the 21st century > 1970s > 1980s. The theoretical forecast values of cold disaster of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 year return period showed obvious zonal distribution characteristics. The chilling accumulation diminished from the north to the south and the extreme minimum temperature was higher in the south and lower in the north, which was consistent with the distribution trend in the actual occurrence of cold damage. Typical cases showed more extended chilling return periods in the south than in the north. In Zhanjiang and Maoming, the main producing areas of winter crops in Guangdong Province, the return period of cold damage was long, the probability of extreme cold damage was small but the damage was heavy, and the area of winter crops was in the front rank, which should be paid attention. Our results could provide scientific reference for local government and relevant departments in Guangdong Province to guide winter planting and develop countermeasures against climate change.