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福建省水稻生育期气温与降水的时空分布及其对稻作制度的影响

江敏1,金之庆2,杨慧3,石春林2,朱朝枝1,林文雄1**   

  1. (1福建农林大学作物学院, 福州 350002;  2江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所, 南京 210014; 3中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院, 江苏徐州 221008)
  • 出版日期:2012-12-18 发布日期:2012-12-18

Spatiotemporal distribution of  air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period in Fujian Province of East China and the effects of this distribution on  rice planting pattern. 

JIANG Min1, JIN Zhi-qing2, YANG Hui3, SHI Chun-lin2, ZHU Chao-zhi1, LIN Wen-xiong1   

  1. (1College of Crop Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; 2Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China; 3College of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu, China)
  • Online:2012-12-18 Published:2012-12-18

摘要: 为了研究气候变化对福建省水稻生产及稻作制度的影响,根据IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2、B2和A1B方案,分析了未来不同情景下,福建省水稻生育期气温及降水的时空分布特征及水稻种植布局变化.结果表明: 未来福建省水稻生育期的温度将呈上升趋势,随着时间的推移,增温幅度加大.单季稻生育期增温幅度最大,2011—2030年和2031—2050年分别增加0.3~2.4 ℃和1.5~3.4 ℃;早稻生育期两个时段分别增加0.2~0.9 ℃和0.7~1.7 ℃;后季稻生育期两个时段分别增加0.3~2.1 ℃和0.5~3.6 ℃,且日均温的年际波动幅度最大.降水多呈增加趋势,早稻、单季稻和后季稻生育期降水分别增加10%~40%、10%~30%和10%~20%;闽东南早稻生育期的降水年际波动最大.未来气温的上升导致了10 ℃以上积温增加,水稻生长季延长,使用晚熟品种替代早熟和中熟品种及单季稻种植区改种双季稻成为可能.

Abstract: In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the rice production and rice planting pattern in Fujian Province, an analysis was made on the spatiotemporal distribution of air temperature and precipitation in rice growth period  in the Province, and the possible changes of the local rice planting pattern in the future, based on the A2, B2, and A1B scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). In the future, the rice growth period’s air temperature in the Province tended to be increased, and the increment would be increased with time, with the maximum for single cropping rice and being 0.3-2.4 ℃ and 1.5-3.4 ℃ in 2011-2030 and 2031-2050, respectively. For early rice and late rice, the increment of their growth period’s air temperature would be 0.2-0.9 ℃ and 0.7-1.7 ℃ in 2011-2030 and 0.3-2.1 ℃ and 0.5-3.6 ℃ in 2031-2050, respectively, but the annual fluctuation of the mean daily temperature would be most obvious for late rice. The rice growth period’s precipitation in most parts of the Province also tended to be increased, and the increment for early rice, single cropping rice, and late rice would be 10%-40%, 10%-30%, and 10%-20%, respectively. The annual fluctuation of the precipitation would be most obvious for the early rice in southeastern Fujian. The elevated air temperature in the future could induce the increase of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature, and lengthen the rice growth season, making it possible to replace early and medium-maturity varieties with late-maturity  varieties, and to adopt double-rice planting pattern instead of single-rice planting pattern.