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山西省农业热量资源变化特征及其对农业的影响

钱锦霞**,张建新,李娜,韩普   

  1. (山西省气象决策服务中心, 太原 030006)
  • 出版日期:2015-03-18 发布日期:2015-03-18

Variation characteristics of agricultural heat resource and its effect on agriculture in Shanxi Province, China.

QIAN Jin-xia, ZHANG Jian-xin, LI Na, HAN Pu   

  1. (Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision Making, Taiyuan 030006, China)
  • Online:2015-03-18 Published:2015-03-18

摘要: 基于山西省境内分布较为均匀的70个地面气象观测站1970—2012年逐日平均气温和地面最低温度资料,统计了≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃期间的活动积温、7月平均气温以及无霜冻期等农业热量指标.采用线性倾向估计法和累积距平法分析了农业热量资源的变化及其突变特征,以及农业热量资源变化对作物种植带和棉花、马铃薯可种植区的影响.结果表明: ≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃期间的活动积温分别以64.8和57.9 ℃·d·(10 a)-1的速率增加(P<0.001),7月平均气温以0.3 ℃·(10 a)-1的速率显著升高,无霜冻期以5.9 d·(10 a)-1的速率显著延长.≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃期间活动积温的增加幅度西部大于东部,7月平均气温的升高幅度北、中部大于南部,无霜冻期的延长幅度中部大于南、北部.≥ 0 ℃和≥10 ℃期间的活动积温在1996年发生了增加突变,7月平均气温在1993年发生了升高突变,无霜冻期在1997年发生了延长突变.与突变前相比,≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃期间的活动积温分别增加了219.4和196.7 ℃·d,7月平均气温升高了0.8 ℃,无霜冻期延长了15 d;与此同时,温热作物带和温暖作物带的面积向北扩大,扩大面积最大的是温暖作物带,扩大175.7%,而温和作物带、温凉作物带、温寒作物带和高寒植物区的面积缩小,缩小面积最大的是温寒作物带,缩小87.9%.随着农业热量资源的丰富,喜温作物可种植面积扩大,其中棉花可种植面积扩大1.7×106 hm2,扩大53.5%;喜凉作物可种植面积缩小,其中马铃薯可种植面积缩小8.9×106 hm2,缩小30.5%.

Abstract: Based on the data of the daily mean air temperature and the minimum soil surface temperature of 70 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1970 to 2012, the heat indices of agricultural resources including accumulated temperatures above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃, the average temperature in July and the annual frostfree duration were calculated. Their variation trends and mutation were analyzed by using linear regression and accumulated anomaly methods. The effect of agricultural heat resource on crop producing area was analyzed. The results showed that the accumulated temperatures for above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ had increased significantly at a rate of about 64.8 and 57.9 ℃·d·(10 a)-1, respectively (P<0.001). The average temperature in July and the annual frostfree duration had significantly increased at a rate of about 0.3 ℃·(10 a)-1 and 5.9 d·(10 a)-1, respectively. The increasing ranges of heat resource indices had different spatial distribution patterns in Shanxi Province. The accumulated temperatures were greater in the west than that in the east. The average temperature in July was greater in middle and north than that in the south. The annual frostfree duration was greater in the middle than that in the south and north. The accumulated temperatures above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ showed a clear mutation in 1996, so were the average temperature in July in 1993 and the annual frostfree duration in 1997. Compared to the time before mutation, the accumulated temperatures above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased by 219.4 ℃·d and 196.7 ℃·d, respectively, the average temperature in July by 0.8 ℃ and the annual frostfree duration by 15 d. As a result, hot crop cultivable area and warm crop cultivable area were expanded northward, while the mild crop cultivable area, cool crop cultivable area, cold crop cultivable area and alpine plants area were shrunk. The maximum expansion was of the warm crop cultivable area (by 175.7%). The maximum shrinkage was of the cold area (by 87.9 %). The cultivable area of cotton was expanded by 1.7×106 hm2 (53.5%), and that of potato was shrunk by 8.9×106 hm2 (30.5%).