基于DNDC模型模拟气候变化影响下的中国水稻田温室气体排放

应用生态学报

基于DNDC模型模拟气候变化影响下的中国水稻田温室气体排放

田展^1,2,牛逸龙^1,2,孙来祥³,李长生⁴,刘春江⁴,樊冬丽^1**

( ¹上海应用技术学院，上海 201418； ²上海市气候中心，上海 200030; ³国际应用系统分析研究所，拉克森堡A2361； ^4上海交通大学，上海 200240)

出版日期:2015-03-18 发布日期:2015-03-18

China’s rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation.

TIAN Zhan^1,2, NIU Yi-long^1,2, SUN Lai-xiang³, LI Chang-sheng⁴, LIU Chun-jiang⁴, FAN Dong-li^1

(¹Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 201418, China; ^2Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China； ³International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg A2361, Austria; ⁴Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Online:2015-03-18 Published:2015-03-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前国内外开展了很多农业温室气体对气候变化的响应研究，但气候变化对农业温室排放的影响机制研究还很少见.本文利用国际上广泛应用的生物地球化学过程模型——DNDC模型，模拟了中国过去40年(1971—2010年)气候变化对水稻田温室气体排放的影响.结果表明：与1971—1990年相比，1991—2010年的全国稻季平均气温上升了0.49 ℃，稻季平均降雨上升了11 mm；由于稻季气候变化导致全国水稻田1991—2010年的平均CH₄排放量上升了0.25 kg C·hm^-2，平均N₂O排放量上升了0.25 kg N·hm^-2.表明温度升高会促进CH₄排放，降雨量增加会促进N₂O排放，气候变化影响了水稻温室气体排放机制.

Abstract: In contrast to a large body of literature assessing the impact of agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change, there is a lack of research examining the impact of climate change on agricultural GHG emissions. This study employed the DNDC v9.5, a stateofart biogeochemical model, to simulate greenhouse gas emissions in China’s ricegrowing fields during 1971-2010. The results showed that owing to temperature rising (on average 0.49 ℃ higher in the second 20 years than in the first 20 year) and precipitation increase (11 mm more in the second 20 years than in the first 20 years) during the rice growing season, CH₄ and N₂O emissions in paddy field increased by 0.25 kg C·hm^-2 and 0.25 kg N·hm^-2, respectively. The rising temperature accelerated CH₄ emission and N₂O emission increased with precipitation. These results indicated that climate change exerted impact on the mechanism of GHG emissions in paddy field.

田展1,2,牛逸龙1,2,孙来祥3,李长生4,刘春江4,樊冬丽1**. 基于DNDC模型模拟气候变化影响下的中国水稻田温室气体排放[J]. 应用生态学报.

TIAN Zhan1,2, NIU Yi-long1,2, SUN Lai-xiang3, LI Chang-sheng4, LIU Chun-jiang4, FAN Dong-li1. China’s rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology.