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基于能值及系统动力学的中新天津生态城可持续发展模式情景分析

李春发,曹莹莹**,杨建超,杨琪琪   

  1. (天津理工大学管理学院, 天津 300384)
  • 出版日期:2015-08-18 发布日期:2015-08-18

Scenario analysis on sustainable development of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity based on emergy and system dynamics.

LI Chun-fa, CAO Ying-ying, YANG Jian-chao, YANG Qi-qi   

  1. (School of Management, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin 300384, China)
  • Online:2015-08-18 Published:2015-08-18

摘要: 可持续发展动态评价是确保我国第一个国际合作建设的中新天津生态城项目成功的关键基础之一.在对中新天津生态城自然经济状况、功能结构和规划建设指标体系等分析基础上,将能值分析和系统动力学方法相结合,基于功能流视角将生态城系统划分为能物流、货币流及人口流子系统,构建了中新天津生态城可持续发展的能值评价指标体系及系统动力学模型,设计了惯性情景、科技情景、经济情景、环保情景及协调发展情景等5种生态城发展情景,并对各情景下的可持续发展状况进行了仿真和动态评价分析.结果表明:在经济与环境协调发展情景下,中新天津生态城的GDP、能值积累量、货币积累量均呈稳步增长趋势,能值废弃率、废弃物能值比、环境负载率等较小,能值可持续指标(ESI)和生态效率指数(UEI)均处于较低水平,但比其他几种方案更具活力,是中新天津生态城的最佳发展模式.

Abstract: Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity, which is the first ecocity in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of SinoSingapore Tianjin Ecocity to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.