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莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

徐相明1,2,顾品强1*,陈丛敏3,李钟霞3,费蕾1   

  1. 1上海市奉贤区气象局, 上海  201416; 2北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875; 3莎车县气象局, 新疆喀什  844700)
  • 出版日期:2016-02-18 发布日期:2016-02-18

Response of phenophase to meteorological conditions and flowering forecast model on Amygdalus communis in Shache County, Xinjiang, China.

XU Xiang-ming1,2,GU Pin-qiang1*, CHEN Cong-min3, LI Zhong-xia3, FEI Lei1   

  1. (1Fengxian District Meteorological Office, Shanghai 201416, China; 2State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3Meteorological Bureau of Shache County, Kashi 844700, Xinjiang, China)
  • Online:2016-02-18 Published:2016-02-18

摘要: 利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明:巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现开花末期、叶变色始期落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0~-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17~28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.

Abstract: Based on the phenophase data of Amygdalus communis and homochronous meteorological observation data at agrometeorological experimental station of Shache County during 2008-2013, the change characteristics of phenological period of A. communis and the effects of temperature and sunshine duration on them were analyzed. The results showed that before flowering, positive correlations existed among the first day of phenological phases, and after flowering, the correlations among the first day of phenological phases were mostly less. A significant positive correlation was observed between earlier bud flower swelling and the days of dormant period and growth period, and a significant negative correlation existed between later bud flower swelling and the days of dormant period and growth period. Before fruit maturation, there was negative correlation between temperature and the interval days of phenological period, and after fruit maturation, the correlations were mostly positive. But the correlation between sunshine duration and the interval days of phenological period was positive before and after fruit maturation. The interval days from fruit maturation to the beginning date of leaf colour change had evident response to the average maximum temperature, and the interval days from the emergence of inflorescence to the ending data of flowering, and from the beginning date of leaf colour change to the ending date of leaf fall, had obvious response to sunshine duration. When the dormant period exceeded 30 days and the average daily temperature met the rang from -3.0 to -7.5 ℃, A. communis would get into the flower swelling period after another 17-28 d. There were onetoone correspondences between flower swelling, the beginning date of flowering, the beginning date of leaf colour change, the ending date of leaf fall, and the first pentad average temperature greater than or equal to 4 ℃ and pentad average maximum temperature greater than or equal to 12 ℃, pentad average temperature greater than or equal to 14 ℃ and pentad average maximum temperature greater than or equal to 22 ℃ in spring, the first pentad temperature less than or equal to 10 ℃ and pentad average maximum temperature less than or equal to 18 ℃ in autumn, the first pentad average temperature less than or equal to 1.9 ℃ in winter, respectively. By using partial least squares regression analysis, the first day of  flowering forecast model of A. communis was established with good prediction.