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应用生态学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (4): 1277-1284.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.027

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

应用多个生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区

张海涛1,2,罗渡1,3,牟希东1,3,徐猛1,3,韦慧1,3,罗建仁1,3,章家恩4,胡隐昌1,3*   

  1. 1中国水产科学研究院珠江水产研究所/农业部热带亚热带水产资源利用与养殖重点实验室, 广州 510380;
    2上海海洋大学水产与生命学院, 上海 201306;
    3中国水产科学研究院珠江水产研究所/中国水产科学研究院珠江流域渔业资源养护与生态修复重点实验室, 广州 510380;4华南农业大学热带亚热带生态研究所, 广州 510642
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-08 修回日期:2016-01-25 出版日期:2016-04-22 发布日期:2016-04-22
  • 通讯作者: huyc22@163.com
  • 作者简介:张海涛,男,1989年生,硕士研究生.主要从事水生生物入侵研究. E-mail: haitaozh89@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文由国家自然科学基金-广东省联合基金项目(u1131006)和农业部农业入侵防治项目(2130108)

Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of the apple snail Pomacea canaliculata in China based on multiple ecological niche models.

ZHANG Hai-tao1,2, LUO Du1,3, MU Xi-dong1,3, XU Meng1,3, WEI Hui1,3, LUO Jian-ren1,3, ZHANG Jia-en4, HU Yin-chang1,3*   

  1. 1Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Key Laboratory of Tropical & Subtropical Fishery Resource Application & Cultivation, Ministry of Agriculture, Guangzhou 510380, China;
    2College of Fisheries and Life Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
    3Pearl River Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences/Key Laboratory of the Conservation and Ecological Restoration of Fishery Resource in Pearl River, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510380, China;
    4Institute of Tropical and Subtropical Ecology, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
  • Received:2015-09-08 Revised:2016-01-25 Online:2016-04-22 Published:2016-04-22
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Guangdong Joint Funds (u1131006) and the Agricultural Invasion and Protection Project of Ministry of Agriculture (2130108).2015-09-08 Received, 2016-01-25 Accepted.*

摘要: 高危性外来入侵种福寿螺严重危害我国的农业生产、生态系统完整性和人体健康.为制定有效的防控策略提供科学依据,本研究通过选取最适的生态位模型以预测福寿螺在我国的潜在适生区.结合福寿螺在我国的337条分布记录和年均温、年降水量等19个生物气候变量数据,本文采用MaxEnt、GARP、BIOCLIM和DOMAIN等4种生态位模型分别模拟预测了福寿螺在我国的潜在适生区,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和Kappa统计量分析比较不同模型的预测效果.结果表明: 4种模型均能较好地模拟福寿螺在我国的分布,其中MaxEnt模型的模拟准确度最高(受试者工作特征曲线下的面积AUC=0.955±0.004,Kappa=0.845±0.017),其次是GARP和DOMAIN,准确度相对较小的是BIOCLIM,但其平均AUC也达0.898±0.017,平均Kappa值为0.771±0.025.MaxEnt模型的预测结果显示,福寿螺的潜在适生区主要分布在30° N以南地区,但其中也有部分地区地处30°N以北.适生区面积占国土面积的13.2%,广东、广西、湖南、重庆、浙江和福建沿海地区具有高度潜在入侵风险.本研究可以为福寿螺的科学防控提供参考,并且对大尺度上外来水生生物的适生区预测具有一定的借鉴意义.

Abstract: The high-risk invasive apple snail Pomacea canaliculata has greatly threatened the agriculture, ecosystem integrity and public health. In order to provide scientific evidence for effective prevention and control of P. canaliculata, a most suitable ecological niche model was selected to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of P. canaliculata in China. Based on 377 reported occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, four ecological niche models, MaxEnt, GARP, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN, the potential geographic suitable distribution areas were predicted for the invasive snail. Then, the results of different models were analyzed and compared with two statistical criteria, the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. The results showed that all of the four ecological niche models could simulate the snail’s distributions very well. More specifically, the MaxEnt model outperformed the others in all aspects of predicting the snail’s potential distribution (AUC=0.955±0.004, Kappa=0.845±0.017), followed by GARP and DOMAIN. Although BIOCLIM offered the lowest prediction accuracy, its AUC was 0.898±0.017 and its Kappa value was 0.771±0.025. Based on the MaxEnt model, the prediction results showed that the potential suitable distribution areas of P. canaliculata were mainly located in the south of 30° N in China, but there was some regions spreading over the north of 30° N. The potential areas accounted for 13.2% of the national land in area. Notably, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Zhejiang and the coastal areas of Fujian were potentially high-risk areas. In conclusion, this study would be an important reference for the prevention and control of the invasive apple snail P. canaliculata and it also would be an example of predicting the potential distribution of aquatic alien species on large scale.