欢迎访问《应用生态学报》官方网站,今天是 分享到:

应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 2569-2576.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201708.027

• 目次 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GIS的秋季连阴雨对农业生产影响的风险评估——以四川省盆地区为例

张菡1,2, 郑昊1,3, 王明田1,4*, 游超1,2   

  1. 1中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072
    2四川省农业气象中心, 成都 610072
    3四川省气象服务中心, 成都 610072
    4四川省气象台, 成都 610072
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-17 发布日期:2017-08-18
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: wangmt0514@163.com
  • 作者简介:张菡,女,1982年生,工程师.主要从事农业防灾减灾和农业气候资源评价研究.E-mail:feeling1023@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文由四川省气象局重点项目(2009-05-01)和国家自然科学基金项目(41605042)资助

GIS-based risk assessment of the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production: A case study of the basin area in Sichuan Province, China

ZHANG Han1,2, ZHENG Hao1,3, WANG Ming-tian1,4*, YOU Chao1,2   

  1. 1Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China
    2Sichuan Province Agro-meteorological Center, Chengdu 610072, China
    3Sichuan Province Meteorological Service Center, Chengdu 610072, China
    4Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2017-01-17 Published:2017-08-18
  • Contact: * E-mail: wangmt0514@163.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Key Project of Sichuan Meteorological Bureau (2009-05-01) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41605042)

摘要: 为探索秋季连阴雨对四川省盆地区农业生产的影响,利用盆地区102个气象台站1961—2014年逐日降水、日照时数、水文地形、作物种植面积等资料,从气象灾害要素、区域环境条件和承灾体特征几个角度构建灾害风险评估模型,进而获得能综合体现风险程度的评估指数,并以此为分区指标将四川省盆地区划分为5个风险区域.结果表明: 四川省盆地区秋季连阴雨风险最高的区域位于西南部的平坝和坡台地区、南部的浅丘地区、东北部的丘陵地区,以及嘉陵江和渠江的沿江地区,这些区域需要加强秋季连阴雨天气及其影响的预测和防御;盆周山区因地势起伏较大,耕地面积较少,连阴雨危害不重,属于低风险区;盆地其余地区大部介于较低风险与较高风险之间.

Abstract: In order to explore the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production in the basin area of Sichuan Province, we established a general climate risk evaluation model based on the data of daily precipitation, sunshine hours, hydrology, topography, and crop acreage of 102 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014. This model analyzed the data from the angles of climate disaster components, regional environmental conditions and the features of hazard bearing body to produce an index that reflected the level of risk. Using the index, we divided the basin area into five risk zones. The results indicated that the areas with the highest risk of continuous rain in autumn were the flat and hilly areas in the southwest, the shallow hilly areas in the south, the hilly areas in the northeast, as well as the regions along Jialing River and Qujiang River. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the forecast and defense countermeasures of autumn continuous rain to these regions. The edges of the basin belonged to low risk zones due to their mountainous topography and limited availability of arable lands, and the damage of continuous rain was not heavy. The risk levels for the rest of basin ranged from relatively low to relatively high.