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应用生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 911-917.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201703.019

• 目次 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于WOFOST模型和水分胁迫的河南省冬小麦减产风险

李树岩*, 余卫东   

  1. 中国气象局/河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室/河南省气象科学研究所, 郑州 450003
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-15 发布日期:2017-03-18
  • 通讯作者: *E-mail: Lsy_126com@126.com
  • 作者简介:李树岩,女,1979年生,硕士,高级工程师.主要从事农业气象灾害影响评估及作物模型应用等方面研究.E-mail:lsy_126com@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    本文由中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放研究基金项目(AMF201402)、国家自然科学基金项目(31371528)和中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160402)资助

Yield reduction risk based on WOFOST model and water stress for winter wheat in Henan Province, China

LI Shu-yan*, YU Wei-dong   

  1. China Meteorological Administration / Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard and Applied Technique in Henan Province / Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China
  • Received:2016-08-15 Published:2017-03-18
  • Contact: *E-mail: Lsy_126com@126.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the Open Fund Project of China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique (AMF201402), the Naturae Scrence Foundation of China (31371528) and the Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration Predicting and Forecast Core Business (CMAHX-20160402)

摘要: 以河南省30个站点1981—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,将河南冬小麦主产区划分为5个区域,基于WOFOST作物生长模拟模型,分析了水分胁迫条件下河南省冬小麦减产风险值的变化规律.结果表明: 1981—2014年,各区域冬小麦减产率均呈上升趋势,平均每10 a增加2.8%~5.0%.冬小麦减产率由北向南呈降低趋势,减产率超过20%的事件在豫南地区约10年一遇,豫北的新乡、封丘和濮阳一带约2年一遇;减产率超过50%的事件,在新乡、郑州地区约3年一遇,豫南少遇.豫北及豫中偏北的大部分地区为冬小麦减产风险高值区,豫西卢氏、豫西南南阳、豫南信阳和驻马店南部地区为冬小麦减产风险低值区,其他地区为风险中值区.

Abstract: The main wheat production area in Henan Province was classified into five regions based on observed wheat production data, historical meteorological data and soil data from thirty sites du-ring 1981 to 2014. The changes in the risk of yield loss of winter wheat under water stress condition in each region were calculated with WOFOST model. From 1981 to 2014, the yield reduction rate of winter wheat showed an increasing trend at all the sites with the increase rate of 2.8%-5.0% per 10 years. The yield reduction rate decreased from north to south in Henan Province. The event of yield reduction rate over 20% occurred about once every 10 years in southern Henan Province, and once every 2 years at Xinxiang, Fengqiu and Puyang in northern Henan Province. The event of yield reduction rate over 50% occurred about once every 3 years at Xinxiang and Zhengzhou but was rare in southern Henan Province. The highest hazard areas were mainly distributed in north and middle parts of Henan Province, the lowest hazard areas were distributed at Lushi in western Henan Pro-vince, Nanyang in southwestern Henan Province, Xinyang in southern Henan Province and south part of Zhumadian, the medium hazard areas were distributed in the other regions of Henan Province.