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应用生态学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 1051-1060.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201804.009

• 水文变异与非一致性专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Hurst系数与Bartels统计量的水文变异度及其敏感性

雷旭1, 谢平1,2*, 吴子怡1, 桑燕芳3, 赵江艳1, 李彬彬4   

  1. 1武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072;
    2国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心, 武汉 430072;
    3中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    4长江委水文局长江中游水文水资源勘测局, 武汉 430012;
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-18 出版日期:2018-04-18 发布日期:2018-04-18
  • 通讯作者: * E-mail: pxie@whu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:雷 旭,男,1990年生,博士研究生.主要从事变化环境下的水文水资源研究.E-mail: leisure1y@vip.qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    本文由国家自然科学基金项目(91547205,91647110,51579181)、湖南省水利科技项目(湘水科计[2015]13-21)和中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“秉维”优秀青年人才计划项目资助

Hydrologic variability and sensitivity based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic

LEI Xu1, XIE Ping1,2*, WU Zi-yi1, SANG Yan-fang3, ZHAO Jiang-yan1, LI Bin-bin4   

  1. 1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    2Collaborative Innovation Center for Territorial Sovereignty and Maritime Rights, Wuhan 430072, China;
    3Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    4Middle Yangtze River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Wuhan 430012, China;
  • Received:2018-01-18 Online:2018-04-18 Published:2018-04-18
  • Contact: * E-mail: pxie@whu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:

    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91547205, 91647110, 51579181), the Water Engineering and Science Project of Hunan Province (Xiangshuikeji [2015]13-21), and the ‘Bingwei’ Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

摘要: 近年来由于受全球气候变化和频繁人类活动的影响,水文序列的纯随机成分叠加了跳跃、趋势、周期、相依中的任意一种或多种变异成分,急需明确采用何种指标度量它们变异的程度.本文定义了基于Hurst系数与Bartels统计量的水文变异度以衡量其变异程度,采用蒙特卡洛统计试验方法检验并分析了它们对不同变异成分的敏感性.结果表明: 当水文序列存在跳跃、趋势变异时,Hurst变异度和Bartels变异度均能反映其变异状况,但Hurst变异度对微弱的跳跃或趋势变异更敏感;当序列存在周期变异时,仅Bartels变异度能反映序列的周期变异程度;当序列存在相依变异时,Hurst变异度和Bartels变异度均能反映其变异程度,但Bartels变异度能反映更加微弱的相依变异程度;Hurst变异度、Bartels变异度均随着4种成分变异幅度的增大而增大,说明Hurst变异度、Bartels变异度可以衡量水文序列的变异程度.以澜沧江流域各气象站气温序列为例,发现各站气温出现了向上的趋势或跳跃变异,说明整个流域近年来出现了气候变暖的现象,且上、下游气温变异度更高,体现出本文所提方法的实用性.

Abstract: Due to the global climate change and frequent human activities in recent years, the pure stochastic components of hydrological sequence is mixed with one or several of the variation ingredients, including jump, trend, period and dependency. It is urgently needed to clarify which indices should be used to quantify the degree of their variability. In this study, we defined the hydrological variability based on Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic, and used Monte Carlo statistical tests to test and analyze their sensitivity to different variants. When the hydrological sequence had jump or trend variation, both Hurst coefficient and Bartels statistic could reflect the variation, with the Hurst coefficient being more sensitive to weak jump or trend variation. When the sequence had period, only the Bartels statistic could detect the mutation of the sequence. When the sequence had a dependency, both the Hurst coefficient and the Bartels statistics could reflect the variation, with the latter could detect weaker dependent variations. For the four variations, both the Hurst variability and Bartels variability increased with the increases of variation range. Thus, they could be used to measure the variation intensity of the hydrological sequence. We analyzed the temperature series of different weather stations in the Lancang River basin. Results showed that the temperature of all stations showed the upward trend or jump, indicating that the entire basin had experienced warming in recent years and the temperature variability in the upper and lower reaches was much higher. This case study showed the practicability of the proposed method.