基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201610.020

应用生态学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (10): 3221-3227.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201610.020

基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估

徐晶晶^1,2, 吴波¹, 张玲妍¹, 郭书海^1*, 李刚¹, 李凤梅¹

¹中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳 110016;
²中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;

收稿日期:2016-02-29 发布日期:2016-10-18
通讯作者: * E-mail: shuhaiguo@iae.ac.cn
作者简介:徐晶晶,女,1991年生,硕士研究生. 主要从事污染防治与环境修复研究. E-mail: xujingjing13@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
本文由中国科学院科技服务网络计划项目(KFJ-EW-STS-013)资助

Risk assessment of cadmium in rice in Xiangtan, Hunan, China based on Bayesian method

XU Jing-jing^1,2, WU Bo¹, ZHANG Ling-yan¹, GUO Shu-hai^1*, LI Gang¹, LI Feng-mei¹

¹Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;
²University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

Received:2016-02-29 Published:2016-10-18
Contact: * E-mail: shuhaiguo@iae.ac.cn
Supported by:
This work was supported by the Science and Technology Service Network Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KFJ-EW-STS-013).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 于湖南省湘潭市下辖的湘潭、雨湖、湘乡3个县市区共采集稻田土壤和稻米样品73组,测定了土壤全Cd含量、土壤有效态Cd含量以及稻米Cd含量,分析了这3种Cd含量之间的相关性.在此基础上,根据先验概率与数据特征,提出了基于贝叶斯方法的稻米Cd超标风险评估方法,建立了风险评估模型.结果表明: 研究区土壤平均Cd含量、土壤有效态Cd含量及稻米Cd含量分别为(0.891±0.638)、(0.791±0.582)和(0.376±0.395) mg·kg^-1,土壤与稻米Cd含量超标率分别高达89.0%和52.1%.湘潭和雨湖稻米Cd含量与土壤Cd全量和有效Cd含量间均呈显著相关关系,且稻米Cd含量与有效Cd含量的相关性更高,湘乡稻米Cd含量与土壤Cd全量及有效Cd含量间均没有相关性.将土壤Cd全量和有效Cd含量作为贝叶斯风险评估模型的变量,预测的稻米Cd超标概率与实际超标率的偏差分别为6.6%和3.9%,说明贝叶斯风险评估模型可靠,但以有效Cd含量为依据的预测结果更准确.

Abstract: In this study, a total of 73 groups of paddy soil and rice samples were collected from 3 counties of Xiangtan City, Hunan Province, which were Xiangtan, Yuhu, and Xiangxiang, respectively. The total content of Cd in soil and rice samples was determined, the available Cd in soil samples also was measured, and the correlation analysis was conducted among them, respectively. According to the prior probability and data feature, we proposed to use the Bayesian method to eva-luate the risk of Cd content exceeding criterion in rice and construct the risk assessment model. The results indicated that, the average soil Cd content, soil available Cd content and the rice Cd content in the study area were (0.891±0.638) mg·kg^-1, (0.791±0.582) mg·kg^-1 and (0.376±0.395) mg·kg^-1, respectively, and the exceeding standard rate of Cd content in soil and rice reached 89.0% and 52.1%. The rice Cd content was significantly correlated with the available Cd content and total Cd content in soil in Xiangtan and Yuhu. A better correlation was presented between the soil available Cd content and rice Cd content. The rice Cd content in Xiangxiang had no correlation with total Cd content and available Cd content in soil. When the total Cd content and available Cd content were selected as the variables of Bayesian model, the deviations between the predicted exceeding probability of Cd in rice and the true exceeding standard rate were 6.6% and 3.9%, respectively, which proved the Bayesian risk assessment model was reliable. Selecting the available Cd content as the model variable, the predicted result was closer to the true value.

徐晶晶, 吴波, 张玲妍, 郭书海, 李刚, 李凤梅. 基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(10): 3221-3227.

XU Jing-jing, WU Bo, ZHANG Ling-yan, GUO Shu-hai, LI Gang, LI Feng-mei. Risk assessment of cadmium in rice in Xiangtan, Hunan, China based on Bayesian method[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(10): 3221-3227.

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基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估

Risk assessment of cadmium in rice in Xiangtan, Hunan, China based on Bayesian method

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