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松嫩平原活动积温变化及其对作物产量的影响

吕金莹,闫超,贾天宇,王芳媛,孙洪超,董守坤,龚振平*   

  1. (东北农业大学农学院, 哈尔滨 150030)
  • 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2019-11-10

The variation of accumulated temperature in Songnen Plain and its impact on crop yield.

LÜ Jin-ying, YAN Chao, JIA Tian-yu, WANG Fang-yuan, SUN Hong-chao, DONG Shou-kun, GONG Zhen-ping*   

  1. (College of Agriculture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China).
     
  • Online:2019-11-10 Published:2019-11-10

摘要: 选取松嫩平原长春、哈尔滨、白城、齐齐哈尔、海伦和嫩江6个气象台站1951—2017年逐日气温资料,统计各地区历年≥10 ℃积温,构建各气象台站的年活动积温时间序列,分析其变化特征,并利用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA模型)预测各气象台站未来10年的活动积温变化,同时利用国家统计局网站提供的2012—2016年黑河市、绥化市、哈尔滨市、四平市和沈阳市的大豆、玉米和水稻的产量数据,建立活动积温与作物产量的回归关系。结果表明:近67年松嫩平原6个气象台站的活动积温年际间波动较大,1981—2010年是积温升高的主要年份,1993年以来,活动积温增加较显著,2001—2017年的平均活动积温较1951—2000年增加243.6~420.3 ℃·d;松嫩平原北部活动积温上升幅度大于南部;构建ARIMA模型预测2018—2027年松嫩平原的活动积温较2001—2017年有所升高,6个气象台站间升高幅度在25.7~96.9 ℃·d;活动积温预测值均在置信区间内;活动积温与作物产量呈二次曲线变化,活动积温在3300 ℃·d以下时,玉米产量随活动积温增加而增加,活动积温在3800 ℃·d以下时,大豆和水稻产量随活动积温增加而增加。

关键词: 铯胁迫, 丛枝菌根真菌,  , 宿根高粱,  , 内源激素,  , 光合作用,  

Abstract: Based on daily temperature data (1951-2017) from meteorological stations of Changchun, Harbin, Baicheng, Qiqihar, Hailun and Nenjiang in Songnen Plain, we calculated the accumulated temperature above 10 ℃ in each region and constructed the annual activity accumulated temperature sequence of each meteorological station. We analyzed the variation characteristics of active accumulated temperature in different regions of Songnen Plain and constructed predicting model of the active accumulated temperature in the next decade using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model). Meanwhile, using the production data of soybean, maize and rice in Heihe, Suihu, Harbin, Siping and Shenyang provided by the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, we established regression relationship between activity accumulated temperature and crop yield. The results showed that the active accumulated temperature in the six meteorological stations had significant variation over the past 67 years, and the periods of 1981-2010 were the main years for the increase in accumulated temperature. Since 1993, the active accumulated temperature increased obviously, and the average activity accumulated temperature in 2001-2017 increased by 243.6-420.3 ℃·d compared with 1951-2000. Moreover, the active accumulated temperature increase in the northern Songnen Plain was greater than that in southern part. The ARIMA model predicted that the active accumulated temperature variation of Songnen Plain in 2018-2027 will rise, with the enhancement across the six meteorological stations would be between 25.7 and 96.9 ℃·d. The predicted values of the active accumulated temperature are within the confidence interval. The activity accumulated temperature and crop yield showed a quadratic curve. When the active accumulated temperature was below 3300 ℃·d, maize yield increased with the increase of accumulated temperature. When the active accumulated temperature was below 3800 ℃·d, the yield of soybean and rice increased with the increases of accumulated temperature.

Key words: arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, Sorghum haipense, endogenous hormones, photosynthesis, Cs stress.