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生态学杂志 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (07): 1673-1684.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响

王丽1,霍治国1**,张蕾1,姜玉英2,肖晶晶3,卢小凤1,4   

  1. 1中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081; 2全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125; 3浙江省气候中心, 杭州 310017; 4南京信息工程大学, 南京 210044)
  • 出版日期:2012-07-10 发布日期:2012-07-10

Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop diseases in China.

WANG Li1, HUO Zhi-guo1**, ZHANG Lei1, JIANG Yu-ying2, XIAO Jing-jing3, LU Xiao-feng1,4   

  1. (1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2National Agriculture Technique Extension Service Center, Beijing 100125, China; 3 Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China; 4Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
  • Online:2012-07-10 Published:2012-07-10

摘要: 基于全国农区527个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象资料、逐年农作物病害发生面积以及产量资料,从气温、降水、日照等角度,采用相关分析方法,研究了气候变化背景下各气象要素变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响。结果表明:近50年来,气候变化导致的各气象因子变化总体有利于病害发生,年平均温度以0.27 ℃·10a-1的速率升高,其每升高1 ℃,可导致病害发生面积增加6094.4万hm2次;年平均降雨强度以0.24 mm·d-1·10a-1的速度增加,其每增加1 mm·d-1,可导致病害发生面积增加6540.4万hm2次;年平均日照时数以47.4 h·10a-1的速率减少,其每减少100 h,可导致病害发生面积增加3418.8万hm2次;在气候变化导致的光、温、水变化中,温度增加对病害发生面积增加的影响最为显著,其次为日照时数减少、第三为平均降雨强度增大,其标准化回归系数依次为0.508、-0374、0.112。

关键词: 重点生态功能区, 水源涵养, 水土保持, 防风固沙, 生物多样性维护

Abstract: Based on the 1961-2010 daily observation data from 527 meteorological stations and the annual data of the crop diseases occurrence area and crop yield in farming areas of China, this paper studied the effects of various meteorological elements (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hour) on the occurrence and development of crop diseases in China under climate change. As a whole, the variation of the meteorological elements induced by climate change in recent 50 years benefited the occurrence of crop diseases. The mean annual air temperature increasedat a rate of 0.27 ℃·10a-1, and a 1 ℃ increase of the mean annual temperature could induce a 60.944 million hm2·time increase of the crop diseases occurrence area. The mean annual average precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.24 mm·d-1·10 a-1, and the occurrence area of crop diseases would be increased by 65.404 million hm2·time when this precipitation intensity increased by 1 mm·d-1. The mean annual sunshine hours decreased at the rate of 47.4 h·10 a-1, and a 100 h decrease of the sunshine hours could induce the crop diseases occurrence area increased by 34.188 million hm2·time. Among the variations of air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hour under climate change, the increase of air temperature had the most significant effect on the increase of the crop diseases occurrence area, followed by the decrease of sunshine hours, and the increase of mean precipitation intensity, with the standardized regression coefficient being 0.508, -0.374, and 0.112, respectively.

Key words: key ecological function zones, water conservation, soil conservation, wind prevention and sand fixation, biodiversity maintenance.