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生态学杂志 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (09): 2431-2436.

• 方法与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气候适宜度的东北地区春玉米发育期模拟模型

侯英雨**,王良宇,毛留喜,吕厚荃,王建林   

  1. (中国气象局国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2012-09-10 发布日期:2012-09-10

Simulation model of spring maize developmental stages in Northeast China based on climatic suitability.

HOU Ying-yu**, WANG Liang-yu, MAO Liu-xi, Lu Hou-quan, WANG Jian-lin   

  1. (National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2012-09-10 Published:2012-09-10

摘要: 以春玉米的生理生态发育过程为基础,基于作物生理发育时间恒定原理,建立了可推广应用的作物发育期模拟模型。本文充分考虑光、温、水对作物生育进程的综合影响,设计了基于气候适宜度来动态确定作物生理发育日数的算法,为模型的大范围推广应用奠定了基础。利用东北地区农业气象站2009、2010年观测资料对模型进行了分析和验证,模型运行结果与实际观测情况比较吻合,全生育期的均方根误差(root mean square error,简称RMSE)为3.8 d,营养生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.84以上,生殖生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.77以上。模型生物学意义明确、精度较高、数据易获、可操作性强,能够在农业气象业务服务中应用于玉米生育进程的模拟与预测。

Abstract: Based on the ecophysiological development processes of spring maize and the principle of the physiological development time for specific type of crops at a given development stage being a constant, a simulation model for spring maize developmental stages was established by the scale of physiological development time. In the published methods for determining crop physiological development time, only the daily thermal and photo-periodical effectiveness is considered, and some specific genetic parameters are introduced to adjust the genotypic differences. However, it is difficult to gain these parameters in real time in large regional scale when simulation model comes into use operationally. In this paper, the physiological development time during the development stages of spring maize was determined based on the climatic suitability, with the joint effects of sunlight, air temperature, and precipitation on the crop development processes considered. The validation of the model with the data from the agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China in 2009 and 2010 indicated that there was a high goodness of fit between the simulated results and the observed values. The correlation coefficient between the simulated results and observed values was over 0.84 in vegetative growth stage and over 0.77 in reproductive growth stage. Moreover, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the simulated results and the observed values during the whole crop growth period was 3.8 days. Therefore, this model was relatively robust on mechanistic explanation, had high operability, and could be applied to simulate and predict the date and duration of different growth stages of maize in agrometeorological information service.