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河北冬小麦冬季不同类型冻害气候指标及风险分析

代立芹1,2**,康西言1,2,姚树然1,2,李春强1,2,于长文3,王猛4   

  1. (1河北省气象科学研究所, 石家庄 050021; 2河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室, 石家庄 050021; 3河北省气候中心, 石家庄 050021; 3唐山市气象局, 河北唐山 063000)
  • 出版日期:2014-08-10 发布日期:2014-08-10

Climatic index and risk analysis of winter freezing injury for winter wheat in Hebei.

DAI Li-qin1,2**, KANG Xi-yan1,2, YAO Shu-ran1,2, Li Chun-qiang1,2, YU Chang-wen3, WANG Meng4   

  1. (1Hebei Institute of Meteorological Science, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; 2Hebei Key Laboratory for Meteorology and Ecoenvironment, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; 3Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; 4Tangshan Meteorological Bureau, Tangshan 063000, Hebei, China)
  • Online:2014-08-10 Published:2014-08-10

摘要: 利用河北省1981—2010年冬季逐日气象资料、冬小麦冻害灾情资料及品种资料,采用秩和检验法,依据Bayes判别准则,建立了初冬剧烈降温型、冬季长寒型和融冻型3大主要类型冬季冻害气候指标;依据风险分析原理,结合概率密度函数,建立了各类型冻害的气候风险概率指数模型,进行风险分析。结果表明:冬小麦初冬剧烈降温型冻害主要受越冬前后降温过程的降温幅度和过程最低气温影响;长寒型冻害主要受越冬期寒冷程度影响,包括越冬天数及越冬期平均气温、最低气温低于临界温度的天数及其累积负积温两个方面;融冻型冻害主要受平均气温回升到0 ℃以上后出现的低温过程的极端最低气温影响。北部麦区以长寒型冻害风险为主,高风险和较高风险区主要分布在唐山、秦皇岛两市中北部和保定西北部;中南部麦区以融冻型和初冬剧烈降温型冻害风险为主,高风险和较高风险区主要分布在邢台和邯郸两市东部、保定西北部。

关键词: 碳足迹, 河南省, 农田生态系统, 空间分布

Abstract: Based on the data of daily meteorological factors in winter, winter wheat freezing injury and winter wheat cultivars in Hebei Province from 1981 to 2010, the three types of climatic indexes of winter wheat freezing injury, including severe temperature downing in early winter, winter with long cold days and freezethawing, were established by using rank sum test and Bayesian discriminant analysis. According to the risk analysis principle and probability density function, the climatic models of risk probability index for winter wheat freezing injury were set up, and the freezing risk of winter wheat in Hebei was assessed. The results showed that the freezing injury due to severe temperature downing in early winter was affected mainly by the variation range of temperature and the extreme minimum temperature during the temperature downing process. The freezing injury due to winter with long cold days was influenced mainly by the cold intensity of winter season, including the number of days of winter wheat overwintering stage, the mean temperature, the number of days with the minimum temperature being lower than the critical temperature, and the accumulated negative temperature during the same period. The freezing injury due to freezethawing was affected mainly by the extreme minimum temperature in the microthermal process with daily average temperature above 0 ℃. The major risk of winter wheat freezing injury in the north Hebei was due to winter with long cold days, and the high and subhigh risks of such freezing injury mainly occurred in the middlenorth part of Tangshan and Qinhuangdao and northwest of Baoding. The main risk of winter wheat freezing injury in the middle and south Hebei was freezethawing and severe temperature downing in early winter, and the high and subhigh risks of such freezing injury mainly occurred in the east part of Xingtai and Handan, and northwest part of Baoding.

Key words: Henan Province, carbon footprint, spatial distribution, farmland ecosystem