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海南瓜菜春季干旱风险分析与区划

张蕾1,3,霍治国1,2**,黄大鹏4,姜燕5,于彩霞1,吴立1   

  1. 1中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081; 2南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044; 3国家气象中心, 北京 100081; 4国家气候中心, 北京 100081; 5中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2014-09-10 发布日期:2014-09-10

Spring drought damage risk analysis and zoning of melon and vegetables in Hainan Province.

ZHANG Lei1,3, HUO Zhi-guo1,2**, HUANG Da-peng4, JIANG Yan5, YU Cai-xia1, WU Li1   

  1. (1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China; 4 National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China; 5 Department of Emergency Response, Disaster Mitigation and Public Services, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
  • Online:2014-09-10 Published:2014-09-10

摘要:

利用海南省18个站点1998—2011年的逐日气象资料、冬种瓜菜的产量和面积资料,基于3—4月降水量、无雨日数、连续无雨日数、最长连续无雨日数对春季干旱的综合影响,采用主成分分析法构建春季干旱综合指数,建立春季干旱等级指标。通过减产率分离得到春季干旱导致的瓜菜(西瓜Citrullus lanatus、豇豆Vigna unguiculata、辣椒Capsicum annuum、丝瓜Luffa cylindrica)灾损,综合考虑致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力进行瓜菜春季干旱灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:瓜菜春季干旱致灾风险指数呈现东西高、中间低的分布,且不同春季干旱等级风险概率分布存在着明显的地区差异;春季干旱孕灾环境指数以海南中部的五指山为中心向四周逐渐减小;4种瓜菜的灾损风险和防灾能力分布地域差异显著;集成致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力得到的干旱综合风险,4种瓜菜的高风险区均主要分布在海南的西部和南部部分地区,低风险区在海南的中部和东部部分地区。

 

关键词: 土壤无机碳, 碳稳定同位素, 土壤有机碳, δ13C值, 准噶尔盆地

Abstract:

Using the 18 meteorological stations observation data as well as the yield and planted area data of melon and vegetables in Hainan Province during 1998-2011, a spring drought grade index system was constructed based on the comprehensive drought index using precipitation, dry days, continuous dry days and maximum continuous dry days during March and April. Damage loss induced by spring drought was separated from the total yield reduction rate. A comprehensive drought risk model of melon and vegetables (watermelon, cowpea, paprika, luffa) was built by integrating with hazard index, damage environment, damage loss and damage prevention capability. The results showed a high spring drought hazard index occurred in the eastern and western parts of Hainan while a low index in the central regions, and the risk probability of different grade hazard indices differed with regions. Damage environment index decreased from Wuzhishan district to the periphery. Drought damage loss and prevention capability differed in different regions. The high comprehensive drought risk index of melon and vegetables mainly occurred in the western and southern parts of Hainan, while the low index in some central and eastern regions. Our results provide useful information to a better understanding of drought risk for melon and vegetables and help for the policymaking of disaster risk management.
 

Key words: soil inorganic carbon, carbon stable isotope, soil organic carbon, δ13C value, Junggar Basin