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三种光温模型在模拟水稻生育期中的应用与比较

宋洋1,王学林1**,殷剑敏2,孔萍2,杨再强1   

  1. (1南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044; 2江西省气候中心, 南昌 330000 )
  • 出版日期:2014-12-10 发布日期:2014-12-10

Application and comparison of three kinds of photo-thermal model to simulate the rice growth period.

SONG Yang1, WANG Xue-lin1**, YIN Jian-min2, KONG Ping2, YANG Zai-qiang1   

  1. (1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2Jiangxi Province Climate Center, Nanchang 330000, China)
  • Online:2014-12-10 Published:2014-12-10

摘要: 为准确模拟水稻发育进程,本研究根据水稻发育对光温的反应,以双季早稻‘五优157’及双季晚稻‘优选10号’为试材,于2012—2013年在南京信息工程大学农业气象试验站设计水稻大田分期播种试验,同时收集江西省南昌站点2002—2008年双季早稻‘G98202’以及南康站点2002—2008年双季晚稻‘金优207’的生育期观测数据及同期气象数据,校正光温效应模型、水稻钟模型和有效积温模型以获取模型参数,用独立数据对模型进行检验。结果表明:光温效应模型在模拟水稻播种期-拔节期、拔节期-抽穗期、抽穗期灌浆期、灌浆期-成熟期的预测值与实测值基于1:1线的决定系数(R2)分别为0.994、0.994、0.988、0.989,且标准回归估计误差(RMSE)均小于4 d;光温效应模型对水稻品种‘五优157’、‘G98202’、‘优选10号’、‘金优207’从播种期成熟期的模拟精度比有效积温分别提高了2.42%、4.55%、8.74%和3.16%。研究认为,光温效应模型在模拟江西早稻和晚稻的生育期精度略高于水稻钟模型,有效积温模型精度最差,本研究结果为水稻生育期预测方法的选择提供了参考。

关键词: 氧稳定同位素, 柽柳, IsoSource模型, 水分适应策略, 海岸带

Abstract: In order to accurately simulate the rice growth process, based on the photothermal reaction of rice development, field experiments on different sowing dates were designed using double cropping early rice ‘Wuyou 157’ and double cropping late rice ‘Select 10’ in the Agrometeorological Experimental Station at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology in 2012–2013. Meanwhile, the growth stage observational data as well as meteorological data for double cropping early rice ‘G98-202’ from Nanchang station of Jiangxi Province and double cropping late rice ‘Gold 207’ from Nankang station of Jiangxi Province were collected during 2002–2008. Three models (photothermal effective model, rice clock model and effective accumulative temperature model) were calibrated to obtain the model parameters, and then independent data were used to test the models. The results showed that the decision coefficients (R2) based on the 1:1 line between simulated and observed days of the photothermal effectiveness model for simulating rice were 0.994, 0.994, 0.988 and 0.989 at stages of sowing to jointing, jointing to heading, heading to filling, and filling to maturity, respectively, and the RMSE was less than four days. For the entire growth period, the simulation accuracy of photothermal effective model for ‘Wuyou 157’, ‘G98-202’, ‘Select 10’, ‘Gold 207’ increased by 2.42%, 4.55%, 8.74% and 4.55%, respectively, compared with the effective accumulative temperature model. Our results suggested that, in the simulation of Jiangxi early rice and late rice growth period, the precision of the photothermal effective model was slightly higher than that of the rice clock model, and the accuracy of effective accumulated temperature model performed the worst. The results can provide a reference for the selection of rice growth period prediction methods in Jiangxi Province.

Key words: Tamarix chinensis, IsoSource model, water use strategy, coastal zone, oxygen stable isotope