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小麦白粉病气候风险评估

张蕾,郭安红*,王纯枝   

  1. (国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
  • 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-05-10

Climatic risk assessment of wheat powdery mildew in China.

ZHANG Lei, GUO An-hong*, WANG Chun-zhi   

  1. (National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China).
  • Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-05-10

摘要:

本文基于1961—2010年全国主要省份小麦白粉病病情和小麦生产资料、392个气象站点1961—2010年的逐日气象资料,从危险性和脆弱性角度评估小麦白粉病气候风险水平。以年代际小麦白粉病气候适宜日数发生频次作为白粉病气候危险性指标,采用白粉病发生面积率作为脆弱性指标,综合危险性和脆弱性评估白粉病气候风险的变化趋势。结果表明:小麦白粉病气候危险性年代际差异较小且从南往北减弱;白粉病脆弱性随年代有逐步加重的趋势;自20世纪60年代起,小麦白粉病的气候风险逐步加重、范围逐渐加大,2001—2010年有所减弱;小麦白粉病气候风险较高的区域集中在云南西部、贵州、四川东部、湖南、湖北、安徽南部、江苏、浙江和福建。
 

关键词: 碳储量, 时空分布, 滨海湿地, 土壤有机碳

Abstract:

Powdery mildew, as one main disease threatening wheat production, has been increasingly popular in recent years. In this study, climatic risk aspects were assessed to explore the epidemic tendency of wheat powdery mildew in China, by using data of wheat powdery mildew disease from 1961 to 2010 in mainly affected provinces, their yearly wheat planting data, and daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 of 392 stations in those provinces. Frequency of differentclass days at decade scale was selected as the climatic hazard index for wheat powdery mildew, and occurrence area ratio of powdery mildew as the vulnerability index. Comprehensive risk index was built by integrating hazard and vulnerability indexes to assess risk development trend in decades. The results showed that the climatic hazard for wheat powdery mildew decreased from south to north and was similar in different decades. Vulnerability for wheat powdery mildew tended to be severe over time, and the climatic hazard had been more severe and its scope had been larger since the 1960s but decreased in 2001-2010. High climatic risk was mainly distributed in west Yunan, Guizhou, east Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, south Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian, where more attention should be paid to take effective measures to reduce the detriment of wheat powdery mildew.
 

Key words: temporal and spatial distribution, soil organic carbon, carbon storage., coastal wetland