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广西生物多样性优先保护区的气候变化风险评估

何洁琳*,黄卓,谢敏,周美丽   

  1. (广西壮族自治区气候中心, 南宁 530022)
  • 出版日期:2017-09-10 发布日期:2017-09-10

Risk assessment of climate change in Guangxi biodiversity conservation priority areas.

HE Jie-lin*, HUANG Zhuo, XIE Min, ZHOU Mei-li   

  1. (Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China).
  • Online:2017-09-10 Published:2017-09-10

摘要: 利用位于广西生物多样性优先保护区内的48个国家气象观测站的1961—2014年历史气候观测资料,应用线性趋势分析和气候变化指数方法,对优先保护区的气候变化特征及风险进行分析,结果表明,优先保护区气候总体朝暖干化发展:气温明显升高,降水日数、相对湿度和日照减少。年气温平均升高速率为0.155 ℃·(10 a)-1,年降水日数平均减少速率为4.0 d·(10 a)-1,年平均相对湿度的平均减少速率为0.7%·(10 a)-1,年日照时数的平均减少速率为4.3 h·a-1。部分地区发生了低温日数减少,高温日数增多的变化:低温日数减少主要集中在九万山区、桂北南岭地区和桂西山原区;高温日数变化主要分布在桂西山原区、桂西岩溶山区、大明山区、九万山区和沿海地区。秋、冬季强降水日数的增多变化和重旱日数的增多变化,主要集中分布在桂西岩溶山区、大明山区和沿海地区。广西3类生物多样性典型生境地中,岩溶地区气候变化影响程度最大,气候变化风险最高,沿海和海岛地区次之,桂北南岭山地等原始森林地区气候保持最稳定,风险最低。广西生物多样性优先保护区中95%以上地区处于中等及以下等级的风险区内,西林是保护区中唯一的高风险等级区。

关键词: 大型海藻, 枸杞岛, 光合荧光特性, 快速光曲线, 水下调制荧光仪

Abstract: Based on the historical observations of 48 national meteorological stations in Guangxi biodiversity conservation priority areas from 1961 to 2014, using the linear trend analysis method and climate change index, the climate change characteristics and risks were analyzed. The results showed that the climate tended to be warmer and drier in the biodiversity conservation priority areas as the temperature increased, while the rain days, relative humidity and sunshine hours all decreased. The average annual temperature increase rate was 0.155 ℃·10 a-1. The decrease rates of annual rain days, relative humidity and sunshine hours were 4.0 d·10 a-1, 0.7%·10 a-1, and 4.3 h·a-1, respectively. The lowtemperature days decreased while hightemperature days increased in some areas. Specifically, the reduction of lowtemperature days mainly occurred in Jiuwan Mountains, Nanling Mountains of Northern Guangxi, and Western Guangxi mountainous areas with primitive forests; the increase of hightemperature days mainly occurred in Western Guangxi mountainous areas with primitive forests, Western Guangxi karst mountainous areas, Daming Mountains, Jiuwan Mountains, and the coastal areas. Meanwhile, the increases of heavy rain days in autumn and winter and severe drought days mainly occurred in Western Guangxi karst mountainous areas, Daming Mountains, and the coastal areas. Among the three typical habitats for biodiversity in Guangxi, the karst areas were mostly affected by climate change, and suffered the greatest risk, followed by the coastal areas and islands. The primeval forest areas in Nanling Mountains of Northern Guangxi were stable in climate and had the lowest risk. More than 95% of the biodiversity conservation priority areas in Guangxi were at the middle or lower levels of risk, except Xilin, which was the only highrisk area.

Key words: Gouqi Island, macroalgae, rapid light curve, photosynthetic fluorescence characteristics, Diving-PAM