不同气候情景下木梨潜在地理分布格局变化的预测

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202012.012

应用生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 4073-4079.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202012.012

不同气候情景下木梨潜在地理分布格局变化的预测

刘超, 霍宏亮, 田路明, 董星光, 徐家玉, 齐丹, 张莹, 曹玉芬^*

中国农业科学院果树研究所, 辽宁兴城 125100

收稿日期:2020-05-18 接受日期:2020-09-14 发布日期:2021-06-15
通讯作者: *E-mail: yfcaas@163.net
作者简介:刘超,男,1992年生,硕士研究生。主要从事梨资源调查与生态学研究。E-mail:renshengsanjianshi@126.com
基金资助:
现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-29-01)和中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP)资助

Prediction of potential geographical distribution patterns of Pyrus xerophila under different climate scenarios.

LIU Chao, HUO Hong-liang, TIAN Lu-ming, DONG Xing-guang, XU Jia-yu, QI Dan, ZHANG Ying, CAO Yu-fen^*

Institute of Pomology, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xingcheng 125100, Liaoning, China

Received:2020-05-18 Accepted:2020-09-14 Published:2021-06-15
Contact: *E-mail: yfcaas@163.net
Supported by:
Earmarked Fund for China Agriculture Research System (CARS-29-01) and the Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS-ASTIP).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 木梨的抗旱、抗寒、抗盐碱和抗梨锈病的能力较强,是我国西北地区梨的主要砧木类型之一,具有较高的生产价值。但目前其生境破坏较为严重。预测不同气候情景下木梨的地理分布可为木梨资源的合理开发利用及多样性保护提供重要的科学依据。本研究利用木梨全面且精确的分布信息和高分辨率环境数据,基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析,构建其当代及未来(2050和2070年)的潜在空间分布格局,评价环境因子对分布模型的重要性。结果表明: 目前木梨适宜生境面积为33.2万km²,主要位于我国青海东部、甘肃南部、宁夏南部、陕西中部、山西南部和河南西部地区,紫外线辐射量最少月份的平均紫外线量和海拔是限制其分布的主要环境因子。随着全球气候变暖,在不同CO₂浓度情景下,2050和2070年木梨的潜在适生境将逐渐减少,应加强对木梨群体的实时监测。

关键词: 最大熵模型, 木梨, 气候变化, 适宜生境

Abstract: Pyrus xerophila has strong resistance to drought, cold, salt, and rust. It is one of the main rootstock types of pear in Northwest China, with high production value. However, its habitat is seriously damaged. The prediction of the geographical distribution of P. xerophila under different climate scenarios will provide important scientific basis for rational development and utilization of resources and the protection of diversity. Based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis, the potential spatial distribution pattern of P. xerophila in the current and future (2050, 2070) was constructed using comprehensive and accurate distribution records and high-resolution environmental data, and the relative importance of environmental factors was evaluated. The results showed that the suitable habitat area of P. xerophila was 3.32×10⁵ km², mainly located in eastern Qinghai, southern Gansu, southern Ningxia, central Shaanxi, southern Shanxi and western Henan. Mean UV-B of the month with lowest UV-B and altitude were identified as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for P. xerophila. Overall, with global warming, the potential habitat for P. xerophila might decrease in 2050 and 2070 under different CO₂ climate scenarios. Real-time monitoring of P. xerophila populations should be enhanced.

Key words: MaxEnt model, Pyrus xerophila, climate change, suitable habitat.

刘超, 霍宏亮, 田路明, 董星光, 徐家玉, 齐丹, 张莹, 曹玉芬. 不同气候情景下木梨潜在地理分布格局变化的预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2020, 31(12): 4073-4079.

LIU Chao, HUO Hong-liang, TIAN Lu-ming, DONG Xing-guang, XU Jia-yu, QI Dan, ZHANG Ying, CAO Yu-fen. Prediction of potential geographical distribution patterns of Pyrus xerophila under different climate scenarios.[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2020, 31(12): 4073-4079.

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不同气候情景下木梨潜在地理分布格局变化的预测

Prediction of potential geographical distribution patterns of Pyrus xerophila under different climate scenarios.

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