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基于比较优势分析法的冬小麦产量差异

陈健1;王忠义2;李良涛3;张克锋3;宇振荣3   

  1. 1浙江林学院国际生态中心, 浙江临安 311300;2北京市农业技术推广站, 北京 00029;3中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100094
  • 收稿日期:2008-01-18 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-09-20 发布日期:2008-09-20

Winter wheat yield gap between field blocks based on comparative performance analysis.

CHEN Jian1;WANG Zhong-yi2;LI Liang-tao3;ZHANG Ke-feng3;YU Zhen-rong3   

  1. 1International Research Center of Spatial Ecology, Zhejiang Forestry University, Lin’an 311300, Zhejiang, China;2Beijing Extention Station of Agricultural Technology, Beijing 100029, China;3College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China
  • Received:2008-01-18 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-09-20 Published:2008-09-20

摘要: 在农户调查基础上,采用比较优势分析法对曲周县2003—2004年度冬小麦产量差异进行分析.调查数据表明,地块间小麦产量差异较大,产量范围为在4.2~7.9 t·hm-2,变异系数为0.14.通过逐步回归建立的由土壤盐碱度、土壤肥力、是否咸水灌溉、品种选择、返青期追施氮肥类型、播种时间、病虫害防治和返青期是否水分胁迫8个因子构成的产量差模型可以解释63%的产量差异.其中土壤盐碱度、土壤肥力和是否咸水灌溉是冬小麦的主要产量限制因子,其引起的产量差为727 kg·hm-2,占总模拟产量差的52%.小麦品种引起的产量差为202.1 kg·hm-2,占总模拟产量差的14%.播种时间、返青期追施氮肥类型、病虫害防治和返青期是否水分胁迫4个因子引起的产量差分别占总模拟产量差的7%、14%、10%和3%.因此,除土壤和气候状况外,管理措施也是造成产量差异的重要因素,通过优化管理措施可以大大减小产量差异.

关键词: 滨海盐沼湿地, 有机碳, 沉积与埋藏

Abstract: Based on a two-year household survey data, the yield gap of winter wheat in Quzhou County of Hebei Province, China in 2003-2004 was studied through comparative performance analysis (CPA). The results showed that there was a greater yield gap (from 4.2 to 7.9 t·hm-2) between field blocks, with a variation coefficient of 0.14. Through stepwise forward linear multiple regression, it was found that the yield model with 8 selected variables could explain 63% variability of winter wheat yield. Among the variables selected, soil salinity, soil fertility, and irrigation water quality were the most important limiting factors, accounting for 52% of the total yield gap. Crop variety was another important limiting factor, accounting for 14%; while planting date, fertilizer type, disease and pest, and water press accounted for 7%, 14%, 10%, and 3%, respectively. Therefore, besides soil and climate conditions, management practices occupied the majority of yield variability in Quzhou County, suggesting that the yield gap could be reduced significantly through optimum field management.

Key words: coastal salt marsh, organic carbon, deposition and burial.