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应用生态学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (12): 3063-3069.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

采用生态位模型预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区

曹向锋,钱国良,胡白石,刘凤权**   

  1. 南京农业大学植物保护学院植物病理学系农业部作物病虫害监测与防控重点开放实验室,南京 210095
  • 出版日期:2010-12-18 发布日期:2010-12-18

Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China based on niche models.

CAO Xiang-feng, QIAN Guo-liang, HU Bai-shi, LIU Feng-quan   

  1. Ministry of Agriculture Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Management of Crop Diseases and Pest Insects, Department of Plant Pathology, College of Plant Protection, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • Online:2010-12-18 Published:2010-12-18

摘要: 选取32个环境地理变量,结合黄顶菊在中国的分布记录,运用GARP、Maxent、ENFA、Bioclim和Domain 5种生态位模型,模拟黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生分布区域,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)比较不同模型模拟精度.结果表明: Maxent模型的模拟精度最好.采用Maxent模型进行模拟,黄顶菊在我国有7.5%的适生面积,河北中南部、北京、天津、河南、山东、安徽和江苏具有高度潜在入侵风险.

关键词: 黄顶菊, 潜在适生区, 生态位, 侧根分支处, 相邻上级直根, 抗折特性

Abstract: Based on the distribution records of Flaveria bidentis in China, and by using five ecological niche models (GARP, Maxent, ENFA, Bioclim, and Domain), 32 eco-geographical variables were chosen to simulate the potential suitable distribution area of F. bidentis in the country, and the simulation precision of the models was assessed by the method of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Among the models adopted, Maxent model had the best simulation precision. Its prediction showed that the potential suitable distribution area of F. bidenti in this country accounted for 7.5% of the total, with the central and southern Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu having high potential invasion risk.

Key words: Flaveria bidentis, potential suitable distribution area, niche, lateral root branch, adjacent upper straight root, anti-fracture characteristics.