Predicting the potential suitable habitats of Alsophila spinulosa and their changes

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202102.015

Abstract

Abstract: Alsophila spinulosa is a rare and endangered relict fern species. With the Maxent model, we predicted the global potential suitable habitat and its future changes for A. spinulosa. We evaluated the accuracy of our prediction based on the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), in order to provide reference for the protection, detection and cultivation of its resources. The results showed that most potential suitable habitat for A. spinulosa would be in Asia and few in North Ame-rica, Central America, Madagascar, La Réunion, Mauritius, Seychelles, New Zealand, New Caledonia and Fiji. The global potential suitable habitat for A. spinulosa under current climate conditions encompassed 357.1×10⁴ km², with Asia accounting for 88.4% and China for 49.5% of the total. The highly suitable habitat for A. spinulosa in China would be mainly in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan Basin, south of the Nanling Mountains and Taiwan Island. The critical factors driving the distribution of A. spinulosa would be the precipitation of warmest quarter, July average precipita-tion, temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range. Under the SSP1_2.6 climate scenario, the global potential suitable habitat for A. spinulosa would decrease by 7.8% from 2041 to 2060, and increase by 3.2% from 2081 to 2100. Under the SSP2_4.5 climate scenario, it would increase by 2.9% from 2041 to 2060 and by 7.2% from 2081 to 2100. Under the SSP5_8.5 climate scenario, it would increase by 3.3% from 2041 to 2060 and by 5.3% from 2081 to 2100.

Key words: Alsophila spinulosa, Maxent model, potential suitable habitat, climate

YANG Qi-jie, LI Rui. Predicting the potential suitable habitats of Alsophila spinulosa and their changes[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2021, 32(2): 538-548.

References

[1] 吕朝燕, 张宝成, 王加真, 等. 桫椤研究进展的可视化分析. 北方园艺, 2018(19): 172-179 [Lyu C-Y, Zhang B-C, Wang J-Z, et al. Visual analysis of the research progress of Alsophila spinulosa. Northern Horticulture, 2018(19): 172-179]
[2] 程治英, 陶国达, 许再富. 桫椤濒危原因的探讨. 云南植物研究, 1990, 12(2): 186-190 [Cheng Z-Y, Tao G-D, Xu Z-F. A study on the 2.5m_biological cha-racteristics and the endangering factor of Alsophila spinulosa. Acta Botanica Yunnanica, 1990, 12(2): 186-190]
[3] 中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队. 横断山脉维管束植物. 北京: 科学出版社, 1993 [Chinese Academy of Sciences Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Comprehensive Scientific Expedition Team. Vascular Plants of the Hengduan Mountains. Beijing: Science Press, 1993]
[4] 张宪春, 张丽兵. 中国植物志·蕨类(第6卷第3分册). 北京: 科学出版社, 2004 [Zhang X-C, Zhang L-B. Flora of China·Pteridophytes (Volume 6, Part 3). Beijing: Science Press, 2004]
[5] 宗秀虹. 赤水桫椤国家级自然保护区桫椤群落特征及种群动态研究. 硕士论文. 重庆: 西南大学, 2017 [Zong X-H. A Tentative Study on Community Characte-ristics and Population Dynamics of Alsophila spinulata of Chishui Alsophila spinulata National Nature Reserve. Master Thesis. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2017]
[6] 王艇, 苏应娟, 李雪雁, 等. 孑遗植物桫椤种群遗传变异的RAPD分析. 生态学报2003, 23(6): 1200-1205 [Wang T, Su Y-J, Li X-Y, et al. RAPD analysis of the genetic variation within populations of a relict tree fern, Alsophila spinulosa (Cyatheaceae). Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2003, 23(6): 1200-1205]
[7] 国家中医药管理局《中华本草》编辑委员会. 中华本草(第二册). 上海: 上海科学技术出版社, 1999 [Editorial Committee of “Chinese Materia Medica” of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Chinese Materia Medica (Volume 2). Shanghai: Shanghai Science and Technology Press, 1999]
[8] 唐栩. 黄酮类化合物D01抗肿瘤的药理作用研究. 硕士论文. 广州: 中山大学, 2003 [Tang X. The Pharmacological Researches of Flavonoid D01 on Anti-tumor. Master Thesis. Guangzhou: Sun Yat-sen University, 2003]
[9] 弓加文, 陈封政, 李书华. 桫椤叶和茎干抑菌活性初探. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(33): 10566-10568 [Gong J-W, Chen F-Z, Li S-H. A preliminary study on the antibacterial activity of Alsophila spinulosa leaves and stems. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(33): 10566-10568]
[10] 李书华, 赵琦, 成英, 等. 桫椤茎中牡荆素的抑菌活性. 食品研究与开发, 2013, 34(14): 4-6 [Li S-H, Zhao Q, Cheng Y, et al. Antimicrobial activities of vitexin from Alsophila spinutosa. Food Research and Development, 2013, 34(14): 4-6]
[11] 董六一, 范一菲, 邵旭, 等. 牡荆素对大鼠心肌缺血再灌注损伤诱导细胞凋亡的影响. 中成药, 2011, 33(6): 1041-1044 [Dong L-Y, Fan Y-Y, Shao X, et al. Effects of vitexin on apoptosis induced by myocardial is chemia-reperfusion injury in rats. Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine, 2011, 33(6): 1041-1044]
[12] 毕世荣, 苏成端, 徐正兰, 等. 杪椤组织培养的研究. 植物生理学通讯, 1985, 21(1): 38 [Bi S-R, Su C-D, Xu Z-L, et al. Research on tissue culture of Alsophila spinulosa. Plant Physiology Communications, 1985, 21(1): 38]
[13] 邬秉左. 桫椤引种栽培初报. 江苏林业科技, 2000, 27(6): 27-32 [Wu B-Z. A preliminary report on the introduction and cultivation of Alsophila spinulosa. Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science, 2000, 27(6): 27-32]
[14] 曾莉莉, 魏德生, 陈德明, 等. 桫椤易地引种与保护地栽培. 中国中药杂志, 1997, 22(2): 16-18 [Zeng L-L, Wei D-S, Chen D-M, et al. Introduction and protected cultivation of Alsophila spinulosa. China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica, 1997, 22(2): 16-18]
[15] 程治英, 张风雷, 兰芹英, 等. 桫椤的快速繁殖与种质保存技术的研究. 云南植物研究, 1991, 13(2): 181-188 [Cheng Z-Y, Zhang F-L, Lan Q-Y, et al. Research on the rapid propagation and germplasm preservation technology of Alsophila spinulosa. Yunnan Botanical Research, 1991, 13(2): 181-188]
[16] 许斌, 朱文泉, 李培先. 不同气候条件下桫椤在中国的潜在适生区分布. 生态学报, 2020, 40(17): 6105-6117 [Xu B, Zhu W-Q, Li P-X. Potential distributions of Alsophila spinulosa under different climates in China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020, 40(17): 6105-6117]
[17] 段义忠, 鱼慧, 王海涛, 等. 孑遗濒危植物四合木的地理分布与潜在适生区预测. 植物科学学报, 2019, 37(3): 337-347 [Duan Y-Z, Yu H, Wang H-T, et al. Geographical distribution and potential suitable regions of endangered relict pliant Tetraena mongolia. Plant Science Journal, 2019, 37(3): 337-347]
[18] 王雨生, 王召海, 邢汉发, 等. 基于Maxent模型的珙桐在中国潜在适生区预测. 生态学杂志, 2019, 38(4): 1230-1237 [Wang Y-S, Wang Z-H, Xing H-F, et al. Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Davidia involucrata Baill in China based on Maxent. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2019, 38(4): 1230-1237]
[19] 龚维, 夏青, 陈红锋, 等. 珍稀濒危植物伯乐树的潜在适生区预测. 华南农业大学学报, 2015, 36(4): 98-104 [Gong W, Xia Q, Chen H-F, et al. Prediction of potential distributions of Bretschneidera sinensis, an rare and endangered plant species in China. Journal of South China Agricultural University, 2015, 36(4): 98-104]
[20] 罗玫, 王昊, 吕植. 使用大熊猫数据评估2.5m_biomod2和Maxent分布预测模型的表现. 应用生态学报, 2017, 28(12): 4001-4006 [Luo M, Wang H, Lyu Z. Evaluating the performance of species distribution models 2.5m_biomod2 and Maxent using the giant panda distribution data. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(12): 4001-4006]
[21] 姜志诚. 气候背景下中国野生亚洲象适宜生境的最大熵模型(Maxent)预测. 硕士论文. 昆明: 云南大学, 2019 [Jiang Z-C. Prediction of Suitable Habitat for Wild Asian Elephant in China Based on Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) in Climatic Background. Master Thesis. Kunming: Yunnan University, 2019]
[22] 热木图拉·阿卜杜克热木, 古再努尔·孜比比拉, 许仲林, 等. 基于生态位模型的艾比湖鹅喉羚生境评价. 生态学报, 2016, 36(13): 4171-4177 [Remutura A, Guzainur Z, Xu Z-L, et al. Assessment of habitat suitability for Gazella subgutturosa in the Ebinur Reserve. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(13): 4171-4177]
[23] 莫琪. 蒙古野骆驼的家域特征及栖息地分析研究. 硕士论文. 北京: 中国科学院大学(中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所), 2017 [Mo Q. Qualitative Study of Home Range and Habitat Analysis of Wild Camel (Came-lus ferus) in Mongolia. Master Thesis. Beijing: Univer-sity of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences), 2017]
[24] 张琴, 张东方, 吴明丽, 等. 基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区. 植物生态学报, 2017, 41(7): 770-778 [Zhang Q, Zhang D-F, Wu M-L, et al. Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gas-trodia elata based on ecological niche models. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2017, 41(7): 770-778]
[25] 王莉, 韦翡翡, 成希, 等. 基于Maxent和ArcGIS的定西市蒙古黄芪适宜性区划研究. 中国药房, 2020, 31(3): 321-324 [Wang L, Wei F-F, Cheng X, et al. Study on suitability zoning of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus in Dingxi City based on Maxent and ArcGIS. China Pharmacy, 2020, 31(3): 321-324]
[26] 何淑婷, 白碧玉, 但佳惠, 等. 基于Maxent的南丹参在中国的潜在分布区预测及适生性分析. 安徽农业科学, 2014, 42(8): 2311-2314 [He S-T, Bai B-Y, Dan J-H, et al. Prediction distribution areas of Salvia bowletana Dunn. in China based on Maxent and suitabi-lity analysis. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2014, 42(8): 2311-2314]
[27] UNECE. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) [EB/OL]. (2019-05-15)[2020-11-06]. https://wikimili.com/en/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways
[28] Van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Moss RH, et al. A proposal for a snew scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 2012, 22: 21-35
[29] 张丽霞, 陈晓龙, 辛晓歌. CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(5): 519-525 [Zhang L-X, Chen X-L, Xin X-G. Short commentary on CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP). Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(5): 519-525]
[30] Hausfather Z. Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ Explore Future Climate Change [EB/OL]. (2018-04-11) [2020-11-06]. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change
[31] Riahi K. The Shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 2017, 42: 153-168
[32] Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE, et al. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190: 231-259
[33] Phillips SJ, Dudik M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: New extensions and a comprehensive eva-luation. Ecography, 2008, 31: 161-175
[34] Graham MH. Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology, 2003, 84: 2809-2815
[35] Yang XQ, Kushwaha SPS, Saran S, et al. Maxent mode-ling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant, Justicia adhatoda L. in Lesser Himalayan foothills. Ecological Engineering, 2013, 51: 83-87
[36] Peterson AT, Cohoon KP. Sensitivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geographic data completeness. Ecological Modelling, 1999, 117: 159-164
[37] Merow C, Smith MJ, Jr Silander JA. A practical guide to Maxent for modeling species’ distributions: What it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography, 2013, 36: 1058-1069
[38] Peterson AT, Papeş M, Eaton M. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: A comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography, 2007, 30: 550-560
[39] Moreno R, Zamora R, Molina JR, et al. Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using Maximum entropy (Maxent). Ecological Informatics, 2011, 6: 364-370
[40] Flory AR, Kumar S, Stohlgren TJ, et al. Environmental conditions associated with bat white-nose syndrome mortality in the northeastern United States. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 49: 680-689
[41] Brismar J. Understanding receiver-operating-characteristic curves: A graphic approach. AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology, 1991, 157: 1119-1121
[42] Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 1982, 143: 29-36
[43] 姜大膀, 富元海. 2 ℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估. 大气科学, 2012, 36(2): 234-246 [Jiang D-B, Fu Y-H. Climate change over China with a 2 ℃ global warming. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(2): 234-246]