Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201711.017

Abstract

Abstract: Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the “moderate warning”. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from “light warning” to “heavy warning”; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the “moderate warning”; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from “huge warning” to “no warning” during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie’s tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from “moderate warning” into “light warning”, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

XU Mei, LIU Chun-la, LI Dan, ZHONG Xiao-lin. Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017, 28(11): 3731-3739.

References

[1] Chen G-J (陈国阶), He J-F (何锦峰). An approach on the theory and methodology of ecological and environmental warning. Chongqing Environmental Science (重庆环境科学), 1999, 21(4): 8-11 (in Chinese)
[2] Fu B-J (傅伯杰). Early warning theory on regional eco-environmental issues and its application. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报), 1993, 4(4): 436-439 (in Chinese)
[3] Dong W (董伟), Zhang X-H (张向晖), Su D (苏德), et al. Progress on forewarning of ecological security. Environmental Science and Technology (环境科学与技术), 2007(12): 97-99 (in Chinese)
[4] Cao X-X (曹新向). A study on ecological security alarm assessment of tourism destination: The case of Kaifeng City in Henan Province. Environmental Science and Management (环境科学与管理), 2006, 31(3): 39-43 (in Chinese)
[5] Zhao Y-F (赵永峰), Jiao L (焦黎), Zheng H (郑慧). Warning system of Oasis’s tourism environment in Xinjiang. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment (干旱区资源与环境), 2008, 22(7): 144-149 (in Chinese)
[6] Lu J-L (陆均良), Zhang J (张健). Research on natural scenic spot ecological security early warning evaluation index and method. Modern Business (现代商业), 2009(32): 56-57 (in Chinese)
[7] Zhang XH, Lin S, Lin MC. Research on Hainan ecotourism system early warning. Ecosystem Assessment and Fuzzy Systems Management, 2014, 254: 81-85
[8] You W-B (游巍斌), He D-J (何东进), Qin D-H (覃德华), et al. System construction of early warning for ecological security at cultural and natural heritage mixed sites and its application: A case study of Wuyishan Scenery District. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报), 2014, 25(5): 1455-1467 (in Chinese)
[9] Zhang P (张鹏), Qiu P (丘萍). Evaluation and trend analysis of tourism ecological security in Karst areas: A case study for Guangxi. Carsologica Sinica (中国岩溶), 2014, 33(4): 483-489 (in Chinese)
[10] Wu KY, Hu SH, Sun SQ. Application of fuzzy optimization model in ecological security pre-warning. Chinese Geographical Science, 2005, 15: 29-33
[11] Zhang Q (张强), Xue H-F (薛惠锋), Zhang M-J (张明军), et al. Early warning model based on extension analysis for ecological security and its application: Case study of Shaanxi Province. Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报), 2010, 30(16): 4277-4286 (in Chinese)
[12] Liu J (刘佳), Liu N (刘宁), Yang K (杨坤), et al. A review of tourism environment carrying capacity warning. Journal of Ocean University of China (Social Sciences) (中国海洋大学学报:社会科学版), 2012(1): 73-77 (in Chinese)
[13] Zhou B (周彬), Zhong L-S (钟林生), Chen T (陈田), et al. Spatio-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of ecological security of tourism destination: A case of Zhejiang Province. Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学), 2015, 35(5): 599-607 (in Chinese)
[14] Yu B-H (于伯华), Lyu C-H (吕昌河). Application of DPSIR framework for analysis of sustainable agricultural development. China Population, Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境), 2004, 14(5): 68-72 (in Chinese)
[15] Zhang Y-Z (张玉泽), Ren J-L (任建兰), Liu K (刘凯), et al. The ecological security early warning mea-sures and space-time pattern of Shandong Province. Economic Geography (经济地理), 2015, 35(11): 166-171 (in Chinese)
[16] Lu T (卢涛), Wang Z-Q (王占岐), Wei C (魏超), et al. Evaluation of land ecological security of Hefei City based on the DPSIR model and matter element analysis. Research of Soil and Water Conservation (水土保持研究), 2015, 22(4): 221-229 (in Chinese)
[17] Cao Q (曹琦), Chen X-P (陈兴鹏), Shi M-J (师满江). Evaluation of water resources security in the urban area and regulating methods based on DPSIR: A case of Zhangye City. Resources Science (资源科学), 2012, 34(8): 1591-1600 (in Chinese)
[18] Zhang J-Q (张继权), Yin K-P (伊坤朋), Hiroshi T, et al. Ecological security assessment of Baishan City in Jilin Province based on DPSIR. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报), 2011, 22(1): 189-195 (in Chinese)
[19] Zhangjiajie Municipal Bureau of Statistics (张家界市统计局). Zhangjiajie Statistical Yearbook (2002-2015). Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2002-2015 (in Chinese)
[20] Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics (湖南省统计局). Hunan Statistical Yearbook (2002-2015). Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2002-2015 (in Chinese)
[21] Urban Social and Economic Investigation Department of National Bureau of Statistics (国家统计局城市社会经济调查司). China City Statistical Yearbook (2002-2015). Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2002-2015 (in Chinese)
[22] Xu M (徐美), Zhu X (朱翔), Li J-Z (李静芝). Evaluation on land ecological security in Hunan Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylolgy (冰川冻土), 2012, 34(5): 1265-1272 (in Chinese)
[23] Hu Y-H (胡永宏). Improvement of TOPS1S method for comprehensive evaluation. Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory (数学的实践与认识), 2002, 32(4): 572-575 (in Chinese)
[24] Hong H-K (洪惠坤), Liao H-P (廖和平), Wei C-F (魏朝富), et al. Health assessment of a land use system used in the ecologically sensitive area of the Three Gorges Reservoir area based on the improved TOPSIS method. Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报), 2015, 35(24): 8016-8027 (in Chinese)
[25] Lu C-Y (鲁春阳), Wen F (文枫), Yang Q-Y (杨庆媛), et al. An evaluation of urban land use perfor-mance based on the improved TOPSIS method and diagnosis of its obstacle indicators: A case study of Chongqing. Resources Science (资源科学), 2011, 33(3): 535-541 (in Chinese)
[26] Zhao H-B (赵宏波), Ma Y-J (马延吉). Spatial-temporal pattern and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in major grain producing areas of Northeast China: A case study in Jilin Province. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报), 2014, 25(2): 515-524 (in Chinese)
[27] Chen X-R (陈西蕊), Zhang R-Z (张蓉珍). Dynamic evaluation of land resources ecological security based on PSR-TOPSIS method: A case study of Shanxi Province. Guizhou Agricultural Sciences (贵州农业科学), 2011, 39(1): 223-227 (in Chinese)
[28] Ren Y-L (任玉珑), Liu H (刘焕), Wang Y-L (望玉丽), et al. Long-term power load forecasting based on entropy method and support vector machine. Statistics and Decision (统计与决策), 2009(14): 46-48 (in Chinese)
[29] Li F (黎枫), Chen Y-N (陈亚宁), Li W-H (李卫红). The application of setpair analysis based on entropy weight to evaluation of sustainable water resources utilization: A case study in the three sources of Tarim River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology (冰川冻土), 2010, 32(4): 723-730 (in Chinese)
[30] Deng J-L (邓聚龙). Basic Methods of Grey System. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press, 1987 (in Chinese)
[31] Fu L (傅立). Grey System Theory and Its Application. Beijing: Science and Technology Literature Press, 1992 (in Chinese)
[32] Huang W-Q (黄文清), Zhang J-B (张俊飚). Benign development trend of eco-economic system on gray model in western China since conversion of farmland to forestry. Economic Geography (经济地理), 2008, 28(4): 656-660 (in Chinese)
[33] Li H-Z (李恒哲), Li C (李超), Chen Z-Y (陈召亚), et al. Land ecosystem service values and their grey forecast based on partition surrounding Beijing and Tianjin. Research of Soil and Water Conservation (水土保持研究), 2016, 23(1): 222-227 (in Chinese)
[34] Li X-Z (李秀珍), Kong J-M (孔纪名), Wang C-H (王成华). Camparison and application of grey GM (1,1) modified residual correction models in landslide predicting. Journal of Mountain Science (山地学报), 2007, 25(6): 741-746 (in Chinese)
[35] Xu M (徐美), Zhu X (朱翔), Liu C-L (刘春腊). Early-warning of land ecological security in Hunan Pro-vince based on RBF. Acta Geographica Sinica (地理学报), 2012, 67(10): 1411-1422 (in Chinese)