Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province, China

doi:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201912.013

Abstract

Abstract: To detect the suitability of kiwifruit bacterial canker in Sichuan, a MaxEnt model based on distribution information and environmental variables was used to predict its potential distribution area and to analyze the impact of major environmental variables. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation. The average area under curve of 10 replicates was 0.914, which indicated that the predictive results were reliable. The highly sui-table distribution areas of kiwifruit bacterial canker were Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, and Ya’an. All the 21 cities of Sichuan were classified as moderately suitable areas. The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of kiwifruit bacterial canker as determined by Jackknife method were minimum temperature of coldest month (-6.8-7.5 ℃), mean temperature of warmest Quarter (15.6-32.3 ℃), mean temperature of driest quarter (-0.8-21 ℃), annual precipitation (709-950.9 mm), and standard variation of temperature seasonality (4.7-9.6 ℃). Our results are impotant for early monitoring, early warning, and developing control measures for kiwifruit bacterial canker.

WANG Ru-lin, GUO Xiang, LI Qing, WANG Ming-tian, YOU Chao. Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2019, 30(12): 4222-4230.

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