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Interpolation of daily mean temperature by using geographically weighted regressionKriging.

ZHANG Guo-feng1,2, YANG Li-rong3, QU Ming-kai4, CHEN Hui-lin1,2   

  1. (1Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science, Haikou 570203, China; 2Hainan Province Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Haikou 570203, China; 3Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Tropical Horticulture Resources and Genetic Improvement, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; 4Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)
  • Online:2015-05-18 Published:2015-05-18

Abstract: Air temperature is the input variable of numerous models in agriculture, hydrology, climate, and ecology. Currently, in study areas where the terrain is complex, methods taking into account correlation between temperature and environment variables and autocorrelation of regression residual (e.g., regression Kriging, RK) are mainly adopted to interpolate the temperature. However, such methods are based on the global ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique, without taking into account the spatial nonstationary relationship of  environment variables. Geographically weighted regressionKriging (GWRK) is a kind of method that takes into account spatial nonstationarity
relationship of  environment variables and spatial autocorrelation of regression residuals of environment variables. In this study, according to the results of correlation and stepwise regression analysis, RK1 (covariates only included altitude), GWRK1 (covariates only included altitude), RK2 (covariates included latitude, altitude and closest distance to the seaside) and GWRK2 (covariates included altitude and closest distance to the seaside) were compared to predict the spatial distribution of mean daily air temperature on Hainan Island on December 18, 2013. The prediction accuracy was assessed using the maximum positive error, maximum negative error, mean absolute error and root mean squared error based on the 80 validation sites. The results showed that GWRK1’s four assessment indices were all closest to 0. The fact that RK2 and GWRK2 were worse than RK1 and GWRK1 implied that correlation among covariates reduced model performance.