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Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology ›› 2016, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 1594-1602.doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201605.023

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An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province.

YANG Qing1,2, LU Cheng-peng1*, ZHOU Feng2,3, GEGN Yong4, JING Hong-shuang5, REN Wan-xia1, XUE Bing1   

  1. 1Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China;
    2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3Research Center of Soil Ecology and Agricultural Ecology Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110164, China;
    4School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China;
    5Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
  • Received:2015-09-02 Online:2016-05-18 Published:2016-05-18

Abstract: Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological secu-rity by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm2 to 3.07 hm2, while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm2 to 21.96 hm2, which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm2 to 2.98 hm2, while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm2 to 35.87 hm2, the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.