Simulation experiment of RCM and crop model combination and its uncertainty assessment

Abstract

Abstract: Combining RCM-PRECIS (Resolution 50 km?50 km) regional climate model with the CERES crop model validated and calibrated with field experiment and observed weather data,impacts of climate change on agriculture and the uncertainty of the method were estimated in this paper.The results showed that compared with GCMs,RCM combined with the crop model could omit the intercurrent process of stochastic weather generator and decrease the assessment uncertainty.Site scale simulation indicated that the method was effective in plain areas,while not so good in mountain areas,which could be improved greatly if the weather data were validated with the observed data.Applied at regional scale simulation,the method could reflect the yield distribution effectively.But uncertainty increased due to limitation of spatial data.

Key words: Interspecific association, χ²-test, Association coefficient, 2×2 contingency table, Plantation

CLC Number:

S162.5

XIONG Wei, XU Yinlong, LIN Erda, TIAN Zhan. Simulation experiment of RCM and crop model combination and its uncertainty assessment[J]. cje, 2005, (7): 741-746.

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