Abstract: Twenty-one driving factors, including altitude, slope, distance to river, and distance to railway, etc., were selected to simulate the dynamic land use pattern of Guangzhou based on CLUE-S model. The simulated results had a high reliability, with the Kappa coefficient being 0.8014 to the actual situation. The prediction of the land use pattern in Guangzhou in 2010 showed that the distribution of cropland and water body would be mainly affected by topography, and forestland would be more affected by altitude. In 2005-2010, the land use patch number and the landscape fragmentation in Guangzhou would be increased, the complexity of patch shape tended to be simplified, and the diversity index would have a slight increase.

Key words: Aerobic culture, Rice, Population development characteristics