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Spatial distribution of crop climatic potential productivity and its response to climate change in agro-pastural ecotone in northern Shanxi Province.

MA Ya-li1,2, GUO Jian-ping2,3*, ZHAO Jun-fang2   

  1. (1Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006, China; 2State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; 3Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China).
  • Online:2019-03-10 Published:2019-03-10

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations in agropastural ecotone of northern Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2016 and the observational data of five grain crops during growth period from 1981 to 2016, the potential productivity of crops were calculated through a stepbystep correction method. The spatial distributions in climatic potential productivity of five grain crops at different levels were analyzed. The impacts of changes in climatic elements, such as radiation, temperature and precipitation on climatic potential productivity were analyzed by a statistical model based on the propensity to change in potential productivity at all levels. The results showed that the light/temperature potential productivity of maize, millet, sorghum and soybean in the northern Shanxi Province during the period 1961-2016 decreased from the east to the west. The spatial difference of photosynthetic potential productivity of potato was minor. The climate potential productivity of maize, millet and sorghum decreased from the southeast  to the northeast. The distribution of climatic potential productivity of potato was higher in the west and the east and lower in the middle. The spatial difference in photosynthetic potential productivity of soybeans was slight. The impact of climate change on the climatic potential productivity differed among crop species. The effects of radiation changes on the climate potential productivity of five crops were negative. The effects of temperature changes on the climatic potential productivity were positive for thermophilic crops (maize, soybean, millet and sorghum) in most regions, but negative for chimonophilous crops (potato). Climate warming was beneficial to improving heat shortage in northern Shanxi. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the spatial change of climatic potential productivity. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect in the northern part with less precipitation, and no effect in the south part with more precipitation. To adapt to the climate change, it is necessary to strengthen the selection of high photosynthetic efficiency and drought-resistant crop varieties, rationalize planting density, adjust sowing date, optimize agricultural distribution, and promote agricultural rainwater harvesting and agricultural water-saving irrigation technologies in accordance with local conditions, in order to enhance the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promote stable and high yield of food crops.

Key words: Drought stress, Germination, Caragana korshinskii, Hedysarum scoparium, Artemisia sphaerocephala