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Predicting the potential invasive distribution and earlywarning monitoring management of Solanum elaeagnifolium in China.

WANG Ru1, WAN Fang-hao1,2*   

  1. (1State Key Laboratory for Biology and Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China; 2School of Agronomy and Plant Protection, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, Shandong, China).
  • Online:2016-07-10 Published:2016-07-10

Abstract: Solanum elaeagnifolium is a worldwide notorious weed and has been declared a harmful quarantine weed in China. Since its first recorded occurrence in China in 2012, the proliferation of this weed has rapidly increased. To monitor and control further introduction of this pest and effectively impede its secondary spread, it is necessary to establish earlywarning monitoring program by accessing the risks of its introduction and by predicting its potential dissemination in China. The introduction of S. elaeagnifolium from North America to Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and South America indicated that commodity imports or human activities originating in North America were the sources of the seeds of this plant, which led to its invasion and global spread. The potential distribution was predicted by application of Maxent ecological niche model on the basis of its global known occurrences. Following evaluation of the model’s accuracy, its high predictability was selected and projected onto the landscape of China. With the exception of three provinces of northeast China (Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin), Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, northern parts of Xinjiang and Hebei, most areas in China were found to foster the survival of S. elaeagnifolium. Because of its high reproductive capability, as well as its diverse invasion and dispersal mechanisms and the huge area for potential distribution, this species may invade additional locales areas and spread faster in the future. To prevent further invasion and spread of S. elaeagnifolium, it is recommended that an eradication program should be adopted in the newly invaded areas. In addition, monitoring programs should be applied in potentially vulnerable regions, particularly in coastal harbors, airports, transfer stations and processing factories of imported cereal grains or fodder crops, which are highly vulnerable to contamination by S. elaeagnifolium.