Abstract: Based on biological and meteorological data of medium and late ripening juicy peaches in Fenghua, Zhejiang from 2003 to 2017, simulation models of phenology, quality and yield of juicy peaches were built using GA-BP neural network. The phenology, quality and yield series of juicy peaches in Zhejiang Province were established based on observation data from 67 basic meteorological stations from 1971 to 2017, then the responses of phenology, quality and yield of juicy peaches to climate change was analyzed. The absolute error of ensemble model for phenological simulation was less than 1.5 days, and the relative error of quality and yield simulation was 5% and 5%-7%, respectively. During the past 47 years, the initial flowering, mature and leaf fall periods of medium and lateripening peaches were advanced, the vegetative growth period of medium-ripening peaches was significantly shortened, and the period of reproductive growth of late-ripening peaches was significantly prolonged. Since the 1980s, the interannual phenological fluctuation of medium and late-ripening peaches increased. Reproductive growth duration of medium-ripening varieties increased in the northern part of the province and decreased in the south, while the vegetative growth duration declined. Reproductive growth duration of lateripening varieties increased. The areas with significant increase were mainly concentrated in Ningbo JinhuaQuzhou, while the vegetative growth duration had relatively small fluctuation across the province. The quality of medium-ripening peaches showed a downward trend, with a climatic tendency rate of -0.01·10 a^-1. The quality of late-ripening peaches showed a very significantly upward trend, with a climatic tendency rate of 0.032·10 a^-1. The climatic quality of medium-ripening peaches decreased significantly in Ningbo ShaoxingJinhuaQuzhou, with a climatic tendency rate less than -0.015·10 a^-1. The magnitude of the enhancement of the quality of late-ripening peaches in the northcentral part was greater than that in the south, with the climatic tendency rate in Ningbo and Jiaxing was greater than 0.04·10 a^-1. The climatic tendency rates of medium and late-ripening peach yield were 0.17  and -0.093 t·hm^-2·10 a^-1, respectively. In the eastern coastal areas and the border areas of Hangzhou, Shaoxing and Jinhua, the yield per unit area increased significantly, with a climatic tendency rate being greater than 0.18 t·hm^-2·10 a^-1. In the northeastern part of Zhejiang, the yield of lateripening peaches decreased significantly, with the climatic tendency rate in central Jiaxing and northern Ningbo being less than -0.2 t·hm^-2·10 a^-1, and the areas with increasing yield per unit area were mainly concentrated in the southern part of Zhejiang and the northwestern part of Ningbo.

Key words: scale effect, response time, rainfall intensity, karst.