Abstract: Based on the banana production data of Hainan Province in 1990-2010, and by using the methods of linear moving average, regression analysis, and information diffusion, a model for calculating the theoretical harvest area of banana was developed, which could distinguish the relative contribution of cold weather hazard to the reduction rate of banana yield from other weather hazards. Then, the model of the colddamage risk assessment for banana production was developed, and the risk division of banana production in Hainan Province was conducted. The results showed that the higher dangerous regions of banana cold-damage were located in the north, middle, and west parts of Hainan Island, and the danger rank was the highest in Danzhou. The lower hazard areas were mainly located in the south, southeast, and southwest parts. However, banana was widely planted in the northern and western coastal cities/counties. In most parts, the cold-damage risk was at low level. The risk was the highest in Wuzhishan, followed by in Chengmai, Haikou and Changjiang, and the lowest in east coastal areas and Sanya, where the banana production was almost not affected by cold weather hazard.

Key words: biological factor, coastal wetland, Yellow River Delta., environmental factor, soil respiration