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Analysis on the potential suitable areas of four species of the subgen. Amygdalus in arid Northwest China under future climate change.

DUAN Yi-zhong1,2*, WANG Jia-hao1, WANG Chi1, WANG Hai-tao1, Du Zhong-yu2,3   

  1. (1College of Life Science, Yulin University, Yulin 719000, Shaanxi, China; 2Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area, Yulin University, Yulin 719000, Shaanxi, China; 3Breeding Base for State Key Laboratory of Land Degradation and Ecological Restoration in Northwest China/Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Restoration and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in Northwest China, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China).
  • Online:2020-07-10 Published:2021-01-09

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Abstract: To clarify the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of four species of subgen. Amygdalus in China, we collected 193 geographic coordinates and 19 bioclimatic variables of four species of subgen. Amygdalus. The potential suitable areas of A. communis, A. nana, A. mongolica,andA. tanguticaunder the climatic conditions of the past times (the last interglacial period and the last glacial maximum period), current and future periods (2050s) were predicted using MaxEnt models. The results showed that, under current climate, the suitable areas ofA. communis are mainly distributed in Yumin, Gongliu, Shache, Yingjisha, Hetian counties, and Urumqi of Xinjiang. The area with low suitability for A. communis in Urumqi has decreased compared to the past. Compared with the current climae, the total area with low suitability under the future climate conditions would increase by 0.17%, mainly due to increased area in Jiuquan of Gansu Province. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of A. nana are mainly distributed in Buerjin, Emin, Yumin counties of Xinjiang. Compared to the past, the total distribution area of A. nana decreased first and then increased in Buerjin and Emin counties. Under the future climate conditions, the total distribution area of A. nanawould decrease by 0.85%. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable area of A. mongolica is mainly distributed in East Gobi, Hohhot, Alax Gobi, and Ordos of Inner Mongolia. Compared to the past, the total distribution area of A. mongolica decreased first and then increased. Under the future climate conditions, the distribution area of A. mongolica would decrease by 3.39%. Under current climate, the suitable area of A. tangutica is mainly located in Maerkang and Maoxian counties of Sichuan; which has increased compared to the past. Under the future climate conditions, the total area of A. tanguticawould increase by 0.25% mainly due to the increased lowly suitable area. Mean annual precipitation is the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of A. communis, while precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) is the main environmental factor affecting that of A. nana. Temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) is the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of A. mongolica and A. tangutica.

Key words: grape berries, paper bag, volatile constituent.